The Thursday Hypness: John Lackey. exposing a players true value every Thursday

I hate the word "overrated." It's such a loaded term. The thing I hate most is that it's almost always used in a strawman argument, in which the author simply states that a player/team is overrated just so they can tell you how they are or aren't. Usually, the pundit just grabs the "overrated" distinction out of thin air.
It's a largely irrelevant term, because it requires a third party's opinion. Ultimately, when it comes to your baseball draft, your only concern should be where do YOU slot any given player. Whether others think more or less of that player is essentially irrelevant.
With that said, I'm not quite sure what to make of the "hype" one Mr. John Lackey is receiving. ESPN rates him as the ninth best starting pitcher in baseball, which seems a little high to me. On the other hand, Brandon Funston of Yahoo has him slotted as the 70th best player, 17th best pitcher and the 11th best starter, which seems a little low in regards to his overall and pitching, but just about right among starters.
So, I don't know that I'd say he's receiving a whole lot of hype, to begin with.
But his relative level of hype is not the real point, which is: Where do I think he should be drafted?
For my money, John Lackey is a solid pitcher who has the ability to be dominant (he averaged a strikeout per inning in 16 of 33 starts and gave up one run or less 10 times) and rarely gets shelled (he gave up more runs than innings pitched six times in 33 starts and never gave up more than twice as many runs as IP). He only won 13 games last year, but suffered from horrible run support, tossed 217 innings (averaging 6.7 innings per start, 13th best in MLB), struck out 190 (7th in MLB), posted a 3.56 ERA (11th best in MLB) and had a 1.24 WHIP (18th). Add those things together, consider the fact that the guy is 28 and I think you could do a lot worse if you can pick this guy sometime in the sixth round or later.
Most of his peripherals (WHIP, Batting average against, k/bb ratio, HRs allowed) were all pretty strong and there's no reason to believe this guy is going to get worse.
Is he the kind of guy you build your starting staff around? You shouldn't bank on it. Is he a real danger of messing up your draft because you took him too high (like the fourth round)? I doubt it.
John Lackey is the kind of pitcher you take when all the real studs are off the board and you need someone that won't kill you, but could help you a lot. He's not someone I suggest targeting, but if he falls into your lap and you're choosing between someone like him and Dontrelle Willis or Aaron Harang, I wouldn't bat an eye at taking him.
Sure, the guy looks like the dude from "Slingblade" but he's a pretty solid No. 2 or 3 fantasy starter.

When you look at John Lackey’s 2006 performance, he looks like an emerging stud, a
front-end-of-your-fantasy-rotation kind of guy.
What’s not to like? Nearly 200 strikeouts, an ERA that hovered near 3.50 and a WHIP a tad over 1.20. And he plays in the American League West for a team that has Vlad Guerrero in the heart of its order.
But when you think about Lackey’s 2006 campaign, there are two things that really stand out: his amazing stretch of games from June 15 through July 14, and his post-all star-break performance.
There was no better pitcher from mid June through mid-July, a stretch in which Lackey pitched 46 2/3 innings and only gave up four earned runs while striking out 44 hitters. That period also encompasses three straight scoreless starts in which the 6-foot 6-inch righty struck out 30 hitters.
But by the time Lackey toed the slab for his second start (July 19) after the break, he returned to mediocre form, and gave up five earned runs on 10 hits over just 4 2/3 innings against Cleveland. That really was the beginning of a nasty downward spiral in which he’d go on to allow more than nine hits in nine of his last 14 starts. Opposing batters hit .304 against Lackey during the second half.
And that, my friends, is why you should not over pay for John Lackey.
I’m not a Lackey hater, I’m just not a Lackey (over) appreciator. I think his size is an asset and his mechanics are solid (and I’d take him if he’s still around in the fourth or fifth round of a keeper league, somewhere near the 10th for traditional turnover leagues), but this guy is just too damn inconsistent for me to justify spending a high pick on him.
Some times he looks like Nolan Ryan (that’s when you trade him), but most of the time he’s just another Freddy Garcia or Kevin Millwood (that’s when you hate yourself) – guys who enjoyed success early in their careers, and always look like their on the verge of regaining their dominance, but never fully do.
The 28-year old is going to be a popular pick this year because many think he’s finally going to put it all together. But if you’re looking to take him early, you better be prepared to love life during one half of the year, and then hate it during the other. It’s a trend that he’s shown in his brief career. And to make things worse, there is no telling in which half of the season he’ll actually perform well.

Screw John Lackey. Fantasy players can hide around Lackey's numbers and then rank him high because of his potential. Yeah he had a great stretch of a couple of months last year where the player that picked and expected him to be an ace looked like a genius, but Lackey took a dive. He was unusable for the second half of the season giving up anywhere from 4 to 6 runs. When I get a pitcher, I want to know what I am getting every start. If a guy gives up three runs a game, while lowering my overall ERA and whip, I am happy with that. If he gets a win and strikeouts, more lumpy gravy for me. I don't want a hump like Lackey that can by Santana-esque in one start and the transform into Russ Ortiz for the next three starts. I don't want to decide week in and week out whether to play him. I shouldn't have to look at matchups either. I want pitchers that I can play every week, regardless of what offense they play. If I get beat, I want to lose with my best players. Not some girl like Lackey.
Who the hell are you John Lackey? A two consecutive start stud, or a three consecutive start 6 earned run female dog?
Bitter? You know it. I traded for that schizophrenic after his stretch run mentioned by Newspaperman.
Newspaperman. Screw him too. I only got Lackey because Newspaperman wouldn't trade me Grady Sizemore after I gave him an offer he couldn't refuse. How good was that offer? Newspaperman was crying to me like that singer guy in the Godfather (notice the offer he couldn't refuse reference above) you know the one:

Newspaperman: Oh, Godfather, I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do.
The Jon: You can act like a man!
What's the matter with you? Is this how you turned out? A Hollywood finocchio that cries like a woman.

Since Newspaperman wigged out, I blocked him by trading for Lackey. Newspaperman had some punk deal where he didn't have to give anything up for Lackey and I swooped in and grabbed up Lackey, because the guy that had the good for nothing hurler was tired of Newspaperman's crap. Lackey gave me one good start. So after about having him for a two weeks, I traded him to PoiDog and let that fool deal with Lackey. If Lackey falls to me in the 11th round (Second for keeper leagues where I traded away my second round pick) I'll grab him. But until he becomes a performer where I'll know what he'll do every week, Lackey is nothing more than trade bait. Stupid Newspaperman.

There are two sets of issue you need to look at when evaluating and ranking pitchers entering a draft. Things they can control, and things they can't. When I look at John Lackey this season, I like both.
Lackey has strong numbers in the main categories that you need to get from frontline pitchers. He has a good era & whip & can get you K's also. These stats are all talent based. He's still young though. He's been around so long that the Giants were actually good when he came up. The point being he's got the experience but is still relatively young at 28. Lackey has steadily improved each of the past three years and considering his health and age, that trend will continue.
The things that are out of Lackey's hands look just as good to me as well. He's on a team with a lot of pride who is going to contend for a division title. Two of the three division opponents, have horrible offenses. Remember, the unbalanced schedule will favor him during fantasy playoffs. He's got a good offense in to support him and premiere closer to back him up. All these factors point to a good win-loss record at seasons end. The home stadium is moderate so there is no disadvantage there.
If you've played for any length of time, you know the same guys get injured year in and year out. Given the lack of quality starters & the fragile nature of a pitcher's arm anyway, you can't recover from drafting an injury prone pitcher early if he goes down. All the more reason why someone like John Lackey is a good guy to have.
I'm on board with Lackey this year as a solid #2 starter. This guy is prime for a career year. He is somewhere between the 10th & 15th best starter and should be selected accordingly. Don't take him as your number one starter, but a good #2 or great #3 if you're lucky.