The Thursday Hypness: Garrett Atkins: exposing a players true value every Thursday

Let’s get a few things straight.
First off, Garrett Atkins is not Clint Barmes.
He’s not an overrated Colorado Rockies hitter who has had one good season (or half of one anyway), causing pundits to prematurely jump on the bandwagon and then leap off the next year without making a peep.
And secondly he is not Vinny Castilla or Jose Hernandez – two former Colorado Rockies who played third base and were vaulted into fantasy relevance because they hit for (some) power, played a shallow position and got to take the field half of the season at Coors Field.
What Atkins is is a talented baseball player whose track record suggests that he’s going to be one of the better third basemen in fantasy baseball.
Does that mean he’s going to be keeper material or even be placed in the same tier as studs like Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera or David Wright? No. He probably won’t ever reach that level. But he’ll have value.
Let’s face it, his 2006 season was special. He hit .329 in 160 games, crushed 29 homers, drove in 120 runs, scored 117 times and posted an on-base percentage of .409.
And while I fully expect that he’ll continue to be a .300 hitter, draw his share of walks and post a nice on-base percentage, I certainly do not expect him to match the 29 homeruns he belted last season, therefore not matching his RBI and run totals, even though he is at that “golden age” of 27.
And those homeruns (some publications are projecting him to eclipse the 30-home plateau) are what people will be counting on when draft day comes along. Everyone is just waiting to find the next Albert Pujols, or any of the aforementioned third sackers, so they will reach and take Atkins pretty high in the draft. They think he’s only going get better.
But before you start thinking that he’s going to go Mike Schmidt on you, look at this guy’s career numbers. Prior to 2006, the most homeruns he’d hit in a single season was 15, and that was in the minor leagues in 2004. Even in college, where he was allowed to use an aluminum bat, he only slugged 17 during his senior year at UCLA.
That said there are two things that could prove me wrong in terms of his power in 2007: 1) if MLB decides that the humidor needs to go, and 2) if Atkins can maintain the number of doubles (48) he hit in 2006.
What I do like about Atkins is his size and his plate presence, which some could argue are correlated.
Standing 6-foot-3 and weighing 220 pounds, Atkins is in the mold of slugging third baseman Troy Glaus. But what’s especially attractive to fantasy owners is the way he uses his size to be better hitter, not just a masher.
In ’06, he drew 79 walks (second on the team behind Todd Helton’s 91) and struck out 78 times, which isn’t bad for a player in only his second full season in the Big Leagues. I love the on-base percentage: .409. I’m a firm believer that if a player can put the ball in play that he will always give himself a chance to be valuable in fantasy leagues.
I think Atkins will be a fine fantasy third baseman this year, just don’t draft him expecting to get 30 homeruns. I suspect that he’ll have a season along the lines of 90 runs, 160 hits, 18 homeruns, 100 RBIs, and hit in the neighborhood of .315. Not too shabby, but exactly “elite.”

I've had Garrett Atkins every year he has been playing in the league. I would look at the waiver wire for my annual, "My third baseman sucks" kickoff and would see Atkins sitting there being a decent option and would pick him up. He would sit on my bench for a while and then I would usually drop him. In 2006 I had him in May his worst month where he had 27 hits, 3 homers and 8 RBIs, so picturing another year of the Rockies offensive hype being overvalued and overrated, I dropped him.
So what did Atkins do? He only had one of the most consistent seasons where he totaled 30 hits or more for the rest of the season. He was sparse in homers with his highest total in a month being 7. Why am I looking month to month? It's the format I play, son. With week-to-week matchups Atkins leaves a lot to be desired if you don't have any power in your lineup. He provides hits and RBIs week-to-week, and that is about it. I pretty much fall asleep with this guy and I don't know why his stats don't floor me like everyone else. I look for hits in a player. He has 198. And I am trying to get excited, but I am not. September's hit count during fantasy playoffs? 39. Home runs? 6. Spread that over 4 weeks? Only 1 to 2. Now I get it. Atkins is a Punch and Judy hitter in disguise. Atkins is a fall back player, nothing more. When a guy such as Jorge Cantu bombs, you can always have Atkins. Well not anymore. Atkins with his 2006 numbers will transform into a top-third hitter for most fantasy teams. Atkins is nothing more that a complimentary hitter, he should not be looked at as a hitter that can carry your team offensively. Have Ryan Howard, Travis Hafner and Andruw Jones? Then get Atkins. His hits, runs and RBIs will be gravy and his moderate power won't hurt you. Have Derek Jeter, Juan Pierre and Joe Mauer? Then stay away for Atkins. He is more hits and does nothing else. At least you get an all-around game with Jeter, steals from Juan Freedom and average from a weak position at catcher with Mauer. Atkins is hits and no fire. Let someone else grab him.
"But The Jon, Atkins hits in Coors Field."
Look, I've been to that park and have seen more games on TV that has put me to sleep. That Colorado outfield is one of the most spacious in baseball. With the humidor they now employ, Coors Field is perfect for doubles. Take away the humidor and you might have something with Atkins. Watching Atkins hit, you are never blown away by him. You never stop what you are doing to watch his at-bats. He gets a hit, and I am getting mad that I had to finish my beer after his at-bat and that I am stuck watching the Rockies. Yeah, I am prejudiced against watching bad baseball. Atkins is boring to watch. And doesn't really inspire future tales of how I've seen him play in person. I just can't justify picking a Colorado player after being forced to watch them because of my job for three years. Atkins just doesn't do it for me. Will he be good? Most likely. Can he help your team? Of course. So why don't I like him? I just think he sucks.
If he puts three years of the same type of numbers he will be a reliable source of stats when the real third baseman that you want are gone. At this same pace, he isn't even a top 25 hitter. He is 8th to 11th round fodder.
He is no Matt Holliday. I hope he proves me wrong this season. But, I won't lose any sleep if he does.

There’s a little game I like to play, I call it “Which player would you take?”
It’s real simple. Basically, you tick off a handful of anonymous stats then ask … which player would you take?
Here we go:
Player A (24 years old): 96 runs, 181 hits, 40 doubles, 26 HR, 116 RBI, 20 SB, .311 BA, .381 OBP and .531 SLG.
Player B (27 years old): 117 runs, 198 hits, 48 doubles, 29 HR, 120 RBI, four SB, .329 BA, .409 OBP and .556 SLG.
Aside from age and SBs, these players are about as similar as you’re going to find. Both will help you in a variety of stats and have very solid peripherals. Even better, they both play 3B and play in hitter-friendly parks.
Still, Player B probably gets the edge … right?
OK, enough suspense, these two players are David Wright (certified fantasy stud) and Garrett Atkins (huh?).
Unless you were in a coma, you know about Wright. He plays in the heart of the media empire and has youth, good looks and a highlight-reel glove. If you’re in a keeper league, he is not available.
Atkins? You’ve probably heard of him, too. You may even realize he had a pretty good season last year. I’m going to go ahead and assume that, like me, you didn’t realize quite how good: he was among the NL’s top 10 in avg. (4), OBP. (7), ops (8), runs (9), hits (4), total bases (6), 2b (4), RBI (5), Extra base hits (8) and times on base (3). People, those are MVP-like numbers.
But, you say, this guy is a fluke, right? He’s playing in Coors Field, he’s having his breakout year in a little late, he’s never done anything like this … he’s Garrett Atkins.
I’m going to go ahead and agree with you on all points, but I’m also going to say this: You can do a lot worse.
Let’s assume the word is out on this guy. Someone in your league is just dying to take him two rounds earlier than everyone else (let’s call him Don). Don drank the Kool-Aid at Jonestown, he bought the hype on Joel Pineiro, picks closers too high and pisses everyone off on draft day because he always takes “sleepers” without really knowing who they are.
This guy will make sure Atkins does not fall into a “safe” round -- you know sometime after the 9th when you’ve already locked up your studs and everyone is some sort of gamble.
My point: If you are at all intrigued by Atkins, be prepared to take him high – maybe not top five high, but certainly before the 10th.
Me? I may have just convinced myself he’s worth the gamble.