Monday's Forum: Draft talent or position scarcity?

Joe Mauer or Manny Ramirez?
Derek Jeter or Travis Hafner?
Rafael Furcal or Roy Halladay?
These are the kind of questions you’ll likely be forced to make during your fantasy baseball draft, and it’s best to be prepared for them now.
In other words, how much does scarcity at a particular position affect where you draft a player?
Looking at the above comparisons, I think the choices are obvious. Give me Ramirez, Hafner and Halladay any day.
The way I look at it, every position counts the same. A season consisting of 45 HR, 120 RBI and .300 BA helps your team regardless of the position that particular person plays. Of course, it’s great if it comes from your catcher, but it won’t hurt you if it’s your first baseman.
I stick to this particular strategy for at least the first 10 rounds of a traditional draft: I’d much rather lock up the guys I feel like have the best potential to put up big numbers, regardless of their position. In rare instances, I’ll even take multiple guys at certain positions and just be prepared to play one of them at the utility spot. Too much of a good thing is almost never bad.
I change it up as the draft winds down, though. Drafting for need becomes a, well, necessity, as you get closer to filling out your roster. Still, I’ve been known to forgo drafting a catcher if I don’t feel like there’s anyone worth spending a pick on, and waiting a week or two to find a free agent I like.
And that’s something to always remember before going nuts over a player just because you think he’s the third or fourth best player at his position – when you otherwise wouldn’t draft him until several rounds later. Every year there are numerous players at shallow positions that seem to come out of nowhere – think Freddy Sanchez and Brian McCann last year or Michael Young and Victor Martinez three years ago.
More important that position scarcity is statistic scarcity: consider how much more valuable a 40 HR hitter is compared to one who collects 200 hits. Whereas that power hitter is basically guaranteed to collect more than 100 RBI and score 100 runs (8 of 11 did it last year and all of them had at least 90 runs and 90 RBI), the guys with 200 hits are really only guaranteed to hit .300 (one of the eight MLBers to collect at least 200 hits also drove in 100 runs and scored 100 runs, although five had at least 90 of each).
Here’s my point, don’t get too wrapped up in what position a guy plays. Obviously, it needs to factor into your decision-making, but don’t feel the “need” to do anything other than compile the most stats.

It's easy for me to tell you (with my chest all puffed out and in a booming voice), "You should always go with talent over position scarcity." But who are we kidding? Nobody can go through a draft and not look at position scarcity, or what spots you need to fill. Purple Lips is ranked so high because he plays third base. If you went on overall talent, he would be picked after Ryan Howard, Alfonso Soriano and Vladimir Guerrero. But Purple Lips plays third base, so he is a top three pick.
So what is my advice? There is none. The advice would be to go with talent every time, but it won't happen. I'm pretty bitter about this and I will explain ... right about now.
The Year was 2001. The year of our first keeper league draft, man, I was ready. I was keying on Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, pre-MVP Albert Pujols and Roy Halladay. I swing for a first-round trade to grab Vlad (a story unto itself) grab Manny in the second round and am sitting there with my third pick just fiending over my luck on grabbing Vlad and Manny. There is Pujols available and there is Roberto Alomar sitting nicely at second base with his 193 hits, 20 home runs, 113 runs, 30 stolen bases and a .336 average. So I take Alomar because he was the best second baseman at a thin position. I thought that he would round out my stats, even though I knew a young Pujols would be good someday. Instead I let position scarcity get in the way and I grabbed the spitter. So what happened? Pujols got picked three picks later, kicked major a$$ that year, and Alomar started his fast decline hitting. 258. If it wasn't for my managerial skills, Alomar could have set me back five years. Unfortunately, I can't guarantee that you can be me, but I will help you try to be by telling you the truth.
Position scarcity and its temptations will always be there. So instead of telling you to go one way, I will do something else. Go with the safest pick and with the guy that you originally targeted. Don't bother with the first baseman or outfielders are deep theory. Don't look at the scarcity and second, catcher or third base. Look at the players you want. Do you want Chase Utley? Then pick him in the first or second round. Don't look at Utley when he falls to you and say, "I really want David Ortiz, but he only plays DH. If I get Utley, I will have a leg up on everyone else at second base ... even though Ortiz produces." Don't listen to that guy.
If you have to start justifying a pick with excuses, you made a wrong pick.
In that same spitter draft, I selected Roy Halladay as my first pitcher with my 10th pick. FreeSanJose started spouting off how Halladay was in Triple-A working on his control. Everyone else was looking around to see who that guy was. I didn't say, "I heard he was going to be good. Besides, I like young arms and he was the best available."
Screw that, I said, "This guy is a stud. I wanted him. I know exactly what I am doing."
No excuses. No regrets. Which is more than I can say about my Alomar pick. A pick that was met with applause as a coup when I drafted him. Which response would you rather have? Call it a fault, but I'd rather lose with a team that I have faith in than lose with a team where I make excuses of having to fill position scarcity and those guys tanked while guys that I originally wanted are MVPs somewhere else. Screw Alomar and his stupid fantasy brother that has been killing teams for the past five years.

Position scarcity can make a person do crazy things. Closers and catchers are the positions
where people think they can make up the most ground. The topic of best player available vs. thin talent positions is always in flux throughout a draft. In the early rounds, you have to go best available player. Sometimes, you can get both (A-Rod), but not often. Don’t pass on guys like Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero in the first rounds because the outfield is a deep position. You’ll just be allowing the other managers to stack up outfielder that your above average middle infielders will never outproduce anyway.
Positions that have traditionally been considered thin offensively, no longer are. You will get 20 homers & 80 plus RBI from Dan Uggla, but he can be had well after the bigger names. You can also look to fill specific categories with lesser-known players as the thin positions. Get your steals from a second baseman or shortstop to go along with the power numbers you get out of first round picks at first base or in the outfield.
The strategy. In the early rounds, go best available. In early middle rounds, start going for the position scarcity. If you’re in the 5th round and can get the best catcher while others are going for their second outfielders, now is the time to pull the trigger. The trick is be the guy that starts the position run, not the one who’s hand is forced. It also helps to know what positions the other managers have already filled. Keep a record during the draft so you can predict who others will be targeting. In the late rounds, go back to best available players.
Another trick is to look for players who qualify at multiple positions. Last year I had Chone Figgins and Miguel Cabrera. It allowed me to pick the best available throughout because I could move either one of them to 3rd base, or outfield. Chone played 2nd as well. Granted, Figgins played like crap last season, but the theory is sound. Know who has multi-position eligibility in your league and get them.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, there is no shortage of draft strategies. Certainly the most discussed has to be here ... Shameless plug.
But perhaps the most intriguing strategy to me involves the use of high picks to select the best player available or using such picks to target the best player at a certain position.
No matter what fantasy sport you play, you’re always going to find one or two positions where the talent level drops off so fast that it seems logical to use a high pick to take a top guy at said position.
And in baseball there are four positions – catcher, second base, shortstop and third base -- where depth is an issue. Yet there are definitely two other positions (outfield and first base) where the talent pool is so deep you can afford to wait.
And that is what this debate is so interesting. Do you continue taking outfielders and first basemen, or do you go after a top catcher or another infield position?
In my nine years of fantasy baseball, I have yet to determine if it is more profitable to select the best player available, or to fill certain positions.
I tend to lean toward filling positions because I can’t stand it when I’ve built a killer outfield, yet I’m bogged down because I’m left playing losers like A.J. Pierzynski or Ray Durham.
And that has furthered my belief that a team full of solid players will do better than a handful of studs.
I think arguments can be made for using your picks in either fashion. If you continue taking the best player available you’re more than likely going to maximize the value or each pick. If you decide to fill certain positions early, this should give you some flexibility later on.
This issue has lost a little steam because shortstop and third base have seen resurgences in talent. But with catcher and second base, there are one or two clear-cut studs, and then everyone else. At catcher you have Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez, and at second base, Chase Utley stands alone.
Utley is a no-brainer top selection because his stats are magnificent and compare favorably with outfielders. But when it comes to Mauer and Martinez, one really has to decide what they are worth because their overall stats are not as good as players at other positions
This then begs the question: Where should they be drafted? Do they go before the likes of Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee or Carlos Delgado? How about Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield or Adam Dunn?
In keeper leagues Mauer and Martinez undoubtedly should be selected higher than those guys, but in traditional turnover leagues where the talent pool is replenished each season it will really depends on if you believe that a group of three or four studs will outperform a team of solid performers.