The Thursday Hypness: Jose Reyes: exposing a players true value every Thursday

With the first pick of the 2007 fantasy baseball draft, Newspaperman selects … Jose Reyes, shortstop, New York Mets.
What!? Are you on crack, Newspaperman?
No. Actually it’s speed and smack -- 60 stolen bases and roughly 20 homeruns worth.
With all due respect to Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Alex Rodriguez – the other four candidates for the top selection – if I were entering a new keeper league tomorrow and had the first pick, my choice would be Reyes.
I suppose that statement speaks volumes about how much I like this guy.
I mean any of the aforementioned players are worthy of the top slot in such a league. But for my money, Reyes is the man. Give me speed, pop, 200 hits, 120 runs, 80 RBIs and a .300 batting average and I’m there. And to top it off he plays shortstop, one of the shallowest positions in terms of fantasy leagues, and hits at the top of one of the most dangerous lineup in the National League. Did I mention he’s only 23!?
Honestly, my decision to take Reyes at No. 1 may or may not be much of a shock to you. If you’ve been paying any attention to fantasy baseball this offseason, you know all about the hype surrounding this guy — every fantasy publication has him ranked in the top five.
But is he really that good? Absolutely.
Remember when LeBron James came into the NBA and people wondered where he should be drafted in fantasy leagues, particularly keeper types? Three years removed from his senior prom, LeBron is worthy of the No. 1 overall selection in keeper leagues. And I think we fantasy baseball owners are facing a similar situation now with Reyes.
This is probably the most energetic player in the game today and he’s got the talent — offensively and defensively — to back it up. And statistically speaking he’s getting stronger.
He’s swiped 60 or more stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and figures to do so again this season. With the stick, Reyes has increased his batting average and hits total in both of his full seasons. But perhaps the most telling statistic that speaks to his success is his on-base percentage.
Entering the 2006 season, Reyes had two drawbacks: questions about his healthy and a lack of plate discipline. But after a second consecutive injury-free season, the health issue has disappeared. And the fact that he raised his OBP from .300 to .354 while doubling his walk total (27 to 53) and keeping his strikeouts (81 in 647 at-bats) to a minimum has critics signing his praises.
Reyes is a freaky talent whose limits have yet to be defined. Especially since he hits at the top of the Mets lineup which is jam packed with power from Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Moises Alou. He figures to be a force to be reckoned with for many years. He’s hardly a flash in the pan.
Whether it is in keeper leagues or traditionally turnover types, Reyes is a guy who should not be underestimated on draft day. He’s definitely the top shortstop in any format, a top selection in keeper leagues and a top five pick in tradition turnover leagues.
In 2007, I see Reyes posting stats similar to: 190 hits, 15 homeruns, 70 RBIs, 125 runs, 60 stolen bases and a. 300 average. He’s Carl Crawford at shortstop in a stronger lineup.
And if Reyes continues to improve his OBP and the Mets lineup stays healthy (big IF), he could become the first player since Jeff Bagwell in 2000 to score more than 150 runs in a season. Just remember I called it.

Whoa, let's slow down. Before I start professing my love and start pulling my skirt up, let's put Jose Reyes in perspective.
Reyes is a complimentary player. He is worth being the first shortstop taken in any draft. He is worth being picked in the first round. But he is not a fantasy franchise player.
Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Purple Lips, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero.
These players all do something exceptionally well whether it is homers, hits, RBI or overall performance with 30 plus homers.
All of these guys can carry your team. Reyes can't. He is an overall player, who provides steady stats across the board from week to week, but he just doesn't do one thing well. He is a Carl Crawford who has great stats at the end of the season that makes fantasy baseballers salivate while combing fantasy magazines. Crawford is a great player, but like Reyes he needs a supporting cast to be effective. Crawford and Reyes dupe fantasy managers and make them feel that they have all categories taken care of with one player. But since they have no one category that they dominate, their value is inflated. Where does Carl Crawford go in most drafts? Late first round or even a slip to the early third round.
Blasphemy? Sure. Let's look at Reyes and see if he qualifies as a franchise player.
Hits: Reyes has had 190 and 194 of them in 2005 and 2006. Those are good numbers. But to be elite, 200 hits are bare minimum. The ability for 200-plus hits is even better. Reyes had 694 and 647 at bats in those same two seasons. From the eight players that posted 200 hits or more in 2006, five players had less than Reyes' 647 at bats. Miguel Tejada had 214 hits with one more at-bat thane Reyes.
Average: 2006 was the first year that Reyes hit .300. Franchise hitters have to hover around .320 and up. Crawford also hovers around .300. An elite player needs to make the most of his at-bats. A .300 averages is better than average, which is average when looking at an elite player who isn't average. Sorry, just want to have another average in that sentence.
Homeruns: Reyes popped 19 of them, which is great for a shortstop, but Tejada, Jimmy Rollins had 24 and 25 homers. Tejada also had 100 RBI to Reyes' 81. Derek Jeter had 14 homers, 214 hits, 118 runs, 97 RBI, a .344 average and 34 stolen bases. I would take Jeter's stats any day.
Runs: 122. No problem here. But runs don't win championships. Runs are second tier along with ...
Steals: Reyes is the best base stealer in baseball with 60-plus for years to come. But steals are overvalued. Every year fantasy managers try to corner the market. They get a Reyes and a Juan Freedom and exclaim how they cornered the market on steals. With steals all you need is 90 a year total. Anything less is overkill. You can have 10 runs and 6 steals a week, and you win two categories. Great. Give me the more steady stats of hits, homers and RBI. All of them compliment each other. You even get runs out of those stats. Four is more than two.
Position scarcity: As a shortstop, Reyes is great. But there are a lot more options available and you don't have to reach high. Rollins and Carlos Guillen are a poor man's Reyes. Tejada, Jeter and Michael Young excel in multiple categories and in some areas outclass Reyes.
So where does that leave Reyes?
Keeper League: definitely a top five player.
Turnover league? Late first round.
Potential? Crazy unlimited ceiling.
Franchise ability? Overrated. A Carl Crawford who needs power guys and high-hits players to enjoy the full benefits known as Jose Reyes.

Jose Reyes’ status as bona fide stud is beyond debate – and that’s certainly saying something for a guy who won’t turn 24 until around the All-Star Break.
So the question is, just how good is this guy? Is a burgeoning star, the kind we’ve never really seen from a middle-infield position? Or is he of the more ordinary variety, someone who will always tantalize us with potential but never catapult into the ranks of the superstars?
For my money, I just don’t see this guy in the same light as Albert Pujols or Johan Santana or even Ryan Howard or Miguel Cabrera. I’m not convinced he’s a better bet than Alex Rodriguez or Alfonso Soriano.
Right there, I have him as no better than the seventh best player and I could see a valid argument for him dropping out of the Top 10 if your league has some unreal obsession with pitching.
So, no, I don’t quite buy the hype.
To me, Jose Reyes is only more valuable than Carl Crawford because of the position he plays, and I definitely don’t see Crawford as a Top 10 pick.
Give me Jimmy Rollins six or seven rounds later, or Rafael Furcal even later than that. Those guys will put up similar numbers of hits, runs and homers, and still steal 30 or 40 bases.
If you happen to be in a keeper league and already own Reyes, you thank your lucky stars, and watch him collect about 200 hits, score around 120 runs, do just enough to help in the power numbers and give you a big leg up in steals. But if you’re contemplating taking him with one of the first five picks of your draft, take a deep breath and consider that this is still a guy who only dominates in one category.