The Thursday Hypness: Alex Rios: exposing a players true value every Thursday

It's easy to overthink on a player such as Alex Rios. First is his name Alex or Alexis? Was it a staph infection or gangrene that he had with his leg? Where had that ball been that caused all this trouble in the first place? Why are Toronto balls dirtier than U.S. balls? If I were lucky enough to play Major League Baseball, I would demand to have all balls thoroughly inspected. Someone named Alexis looking at these balls and ensuring that they were on the up and up would suffice.
As for Rios, he is a two-dimensional player. If the name was Alexis, we would be talking about three dimensions ... of course.
Those two-dimensions have nothing to do with stats, but value. If you have no friends and consider playing fantasy baseball with coworkers a worthwhile endeavor, then Rios won't even be picked. He's yours, enjoy.
If you stay up at night thinking fantasy baseball, play in a keeper league and — in Newspaperman's case — draw a heart around Roger Clemens entry in a fantasy magazine while writing "Mrs. Newspaperman Clemens," than you know about Rios.
You know he was highly touted in 2004. You know a fantasy manager in the know picked him in the last three rounds in 2005, only to be disappointed with Rios' 10 homeruns and .262 average.
In 2006, Rios was again selected in the later rounds and this time he produced before his leg accident which last time I heard was amputated, used as a trophy for two months in the Toronto clubhouse for being the most overhyped team in baseball for three years and then sewn on back to Rios' leg.
Rios was on his way to being kind of a big deal. He had 92 hits before he got hurt along with 6, 4 and 5 homers in April, May and June. In those same months, he had 19, 19 and 16 RBI. Average: .362, .360 and .264.
When he came back from a hunting accident, where he actually shot his leg off, he supposedly struggled. See, writers like players to come in little packages. When a player gets hurt, he has to struggle. It is a law. When Albert Pujols got hurt last year, writers were complaining that he struck out too much. We are idiots this way. It makes us feel special.
Screw that. Rios had 19 hits, a homer and 11 RBI in August. He had 22 hits, a homer and 15 RBI in August. Did I play him? Are you kidding? My team was stacked. But what he lacked in power he was still better than half the players out there in baseball or on the same level.
The biggest concern with Rios heading into 2006 was his power. He squashed that before he donated his leg to science and then got a new one from a cadaver of a 60-year-old woman. You try to hit a homer with that. If you are in a keeper league and have bad keepers or are trying to get young after your vets have made you the most successful manager for the past five years, than Rios is a pick in the first three rounds.
The first three rounds.
As your third outfielder, Rios will take care of you by providing hits and RBI. Throw in his streaky power, and you will be fine. It is really that easy. I don't care where he hits or that he got SARS. All I know is that he can play on your team from week to week and give you stats.
He is an across the board player or as other fantasy writers like to write, a five-tool-player. I heard it took five tools to remove the second heart Rios had in that leg.

He’s got speed. He’s got pop. He can hit to all fields.
He’s young and he bats near the top of a potent lineup.
He’s got a bright future.
Sound familiar?
That’s Alexis Rios … as well as about a dozen other young players in professional baseball.
Rios has talent, we know that. But at this point, he’s become a cliché. And I fear that his draft value has been jacked up because of his tools (see above), his solid start to 2006, and the “what if …” factor.
I like Rios. I heard about this guy in 2002 and have kept tabs on him ever sense. So when he won a starting job 2006 and got off to a hot start, I snatched him up in two of my leagues. (At one point I even considered him keeper material.)
For three months, I felt like a smart guy. He hit .330, slugged 15 homers, drove in 53 runs, scored 47 himself and stole nine bases … before the all-star break. He was a top-25 player and a fantasy stud.
But then he fouled a ball off his leg, got a weird staph infection and the rest of the season was shot.
Heading into the 2007 draft season, and the six months of baseball bliss that follow, Rios is a huge wildcard on draft boards. Many owners remember his performance and are willing to spend a high draft pick on him, while others have simply forgotten about him. Don’t be that guy.
In my mind, I think he’s a solid fantasy player _ the term stud is overused a lot, even by me _ but I do not expect him to repeat what he did during the first three months of the season.
Rios has the tools to be a star in the league, but he is not a .330 hitter. Nor is he a slugger. And he’s not going to be a potent base stealer as long as he is in Toronto. He’s a good all-around player whose got potential. He reminds me of Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay, but in a better lineup.
The Blue Jays ability to resign Vernon Wells and pickup a designated hitter like Frank Thomas will go a long way to help Rios reach his potential.
Toronto figures to hit him second, in front of a very powerful 3-4-5 consisting of Wells, Thomas and Troy Glaus. With those guys behind him, Rios figures to see his share of hittable pitches, meaning he could push .300 this year. I also think he’ll top the 90-run mark.
But those boppers will likely keep Rios’ homerun total down because his job is to be a table setter. It’ll also mean he’ll see more red lights on the base paths than he would like. That means that fantasy owners should temper their expectations.
If Rios can stay healthy — last season’s injury was completely freakish —I can see him tallying 90 runs, 160 hits, 15 homers, 70 RBIs and 15-20 stolen bases, with an average around .290-.300.
But I do think that if you want him, especially in keeper leagues, you’ll likely have to take him toward the top of your draft because everyone wants to get in on the ground floor.
The Jon “discovered” Roy Halladay.
PoiDog unearthed Johan Santana.
And every year Free San Jose ends up with guys like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Felix Hernandez.
Me, I like my young players too. Hell, all five of my keepers are younger than I am.
But even so, I can’t see myself selecting Rios before tenth or 11th round in a standard league. And in keeper formats, I wouldn’t go for him any earlier than the fifth round.
Rios could be a star (he’ll likely be better in three years), but he plays at a deep position and is one of many young players who possess similar tools. Andre Ethier anyone?

On June 27, Alex Rios collected three hits and two RBI. His batting average sat at a robust .330 and his OPS was .965; Rios was having the breakout year many had expected of him ever since he was a first-round pick in 1999.
But Rios left that game after fouling a ball off his shin. That eventually turned into a nasty staph infection, which cost him about a month on the disabled list.
When he returned, he simply was not the same: Rios (almost literally) limped through the next month or so of the season barely able to get the ball out of the infield. By Aug. 29, his average was down to .290 and his OPS was .834. He had collected just 13 RBI and hit only one homer.
Although he would eventually rebound – he hit .396 and collected 14 RBI over his final 12 games – he never regained the power stroke that propelled him into fantasy stardom, as Rios hit just two homers after his injury.
All of this begs the obvious question: How much do I gamble on Rios? Not much.
As well as Rios played for the first half of the season, that’s all it really was – one half of a season. In fact, it’s not hard to imagine that Rios’ staph infection as merely a convenient “turning point” on which writers like me can focus; that his decline was inevitable.
You see, the Alex Rios who suited up for the Toronto Blue Jays on June 27 was someone who only existed in the craziest Blue Jays fans’ dreams. For all intent and purpose, prior to 2006, Rios was just another first-round bust who the team was just happy to have earning any playing time with the big club.
Rios had one nice season in the minors – a .352, .923 campaign at Double-A New Haven in 2003. But even then, he showed little power, going deep a career high 11 times. He wasn’t particularly good on the bases (22 SBs in 2001 is a career best) and showed little plate discipline (he strikes out nearly three times as much as he walks).
Rios was, at best, a fourth or fifth outfielder.
And that’s what I’d expect of him this year. Is he worth drafting? Sure. Can you count on him to be a starting fantasy outfielder? No way.
Until proven otherwise, Alex Rios is a one-half wonder. Let somebody else take the gamble.

The term sleeper is very commonly thrown around come draft time. You think you are going to catch your boys slipping on this guy and pull him late in a draft. Alex Rios in not a sleeper. If the people you are drafting with know anything, you won’t be able to sit back and wait on Rios this year.
The qualifier “if people know anything” is critical here. Those that follow closely had Rios on their radar three years ago when he was just a name and a prospect. Two year ago, he made the bigs but was only good for speed. Last year, dude blew up.
I saw it coming. He has a smooth stroke and hits to all fields. Initially, he looked like he might be all average with no pop. However, at about 6’4” it was only a matter of time until the power came and last year, it happened. He also hits in front of Vernon Wells.
There things a couple of things keeping this guy's profile low. He plays in Canadia, eh. Maybe you live somewhere like I do. You know, somewhere that people claim to be baseball fans, but only know the people on their home team. These are the kinds of people who wet their pants over the free agent signing of Rich Aurilia and Ryan Klesko. If these are the people in your neighborhood, Rios may last a while. Also, he missed a lot of time last year with a staph infection. Had he played out the full season, he was on pace to go 30/30 and hit over .330. Don’t let the infection deter you. It’s not like a pulled hammy which is likely to reoccur.
I'll sum Alex Rios up using the Hubie Brown methodology of description. In Rios, what have here, is guy who in only 450 at bats, hit over .300 and prior to injury, was on pace to exceed 30 home runs, 30 steals, and 100 RBI and at age 26 is just about to enter his prime. HAAWWAAAWWAAWWWAAAAAA. You should be able to nab Rios in the 5th to 7th rounds, but anything after that is pushing it. Just hope the Don in your league hasn’t read this entry.