The Thursday Hypeness: Draft Preview: Third base

They call third base the “hot corner.” Fantasy owners may as well call it a “hot bed” because of the plethora of talented players the position yields.
From the elite tier of Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright, to good ol’ vets like Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen, all the way to new comers like Alex Gordon and Andy Marte, there are more than a dozen guys at this position who can be plugged into your fantasy lineup and produce quality numbers.
Some will hit homeruns and drive runs in. Others will steal bases and collect base hits. Very few will do all four things and more. There is a hierarchy at the position, so don’t be fooled into thinking all third basemen are created equal. Then again, don’t fret if you miss out on one of the elite because there are always guys to fall back on.

Third Base Rankings

1	2	3	4	5
Alex Rodriguez(29 votes)	Miguel Cabrera (29)	David Wright (24)	Aramis Ramirez (21)	Garrett Atkins (15)

6	7	8	9	10
*Chone Figgins (13 votes)	Ryan Zimmerman (13)	Chipper Jones (8)	Scott Rolen (8)	Eric Chavez (6)

"*" - denotes position eligible in some leagues.

The Elite Class

There are three bona-fide stud third sackers in the game, and at least one who produces like one of the elite, but always remains just a step outside the class.
Alex Rodriguez: Was there really any question about who is the top third baseman in fantasy baseball? Without a doubt, Rodriguez remains at the top of the bunch with his perennial most valuable player-type numbers. Although his 2006 season was widely considered one the worst of his hall of fame-caliber career, his statistics were still good enough to carry most teams into the playoffs. More than 160 hits, 35 homers, 120 runs batted in, 113 runs scored and a .290 batting average … and some are ready to dump this guy? Please. Give me a crack at him and I’ll laugh all the way to the bank – and I’m a Red Sox fan. The guy hits in the most potent lineup the game has seen in the last half century. Look for him buckle down this season and “rebound” by bringing his average above .300 again and approach, if not surpass, the 40-homerun mark again and drive in 120-plus runs. Not the No. 1 overall pick, but he shouldn’t stray too far that slot. I still think he’s a better – and safer – pick than Ryan Howard, who some are picking before Rodriguez. And I forgot to mention he’ll swipe about 15 bags a year…
Miguel Cabrera: Rodriguez may be top of the class, but Cabrera … and David Wright (No. 3) … aren’t too far behind. Cabrera is a flat-out superstar. Fantasy owners are thrilled that he returned to his natural position last year after spending a season in the outfield. As a result, owners are cleaning up across the board with his multi-category talent ... and he’s 23! He approaches 200 hits every year, blasts 30 homers, is a sure-bet for 115 RBIs and 100 runs scored. He’s always battling for the batting crown. The only thing his game lacks is speed. Cabrera’s talent is on par with Albert Pujols, who is considered to be the best hitter in the game. It’s scary to think that type of numbers he’d produce if he had some real protection. (newsflash: Mike Jacobs has power, but he is hardly a fearsome hitter.) In 2007, Cabrera will repeat his numbers, but I’m going to predict right now that he wins his first batting crown this year.
David Wright: A huge fan favorite across America, Wright has been wooing fantasy owners for the better part of three seasons. And if you thought his ’06 campaign (96 runs, 181 hits, 26 homers, 116 RBIs, 20 stolen bases and .311 average) was solid, look out because he appears to be getting better. Wright isn’t quite the complete hitter that Cabrera is, but one could make the argument that he is just as valuable because he has some speed in his arsenal. Wright won’t be a homerun champ (although he hits the ball a mile), and may never win a batting title, but his stats at season’s end will be consistent -- .300-plus average, about 30 homers, 180 hits and 100 runs. The only issues I have with Wright are that he tends to slump in July, and he hits fifth. His supporting cast is tremendous, but I get the feeling that his stats would be much better if he had protection (Shawn Green and Moises Alou are good but not scary), instead of him being the protector. But hey, the Mets are stacked. What can you do? Enjoy the RBI opportunities.
Aramis Ramirez: Is there a fantasy player who puts up stud-like numbers every year but gets shunned as much as Ramirez? Many fantasy owners have yet to recognize him as an “elite” third baseman. Personally, I’m with the majority. Ramirez is in the gray area between the elite and the “fall back” guys. His annual stats are ridiculously good: 170 hits, 35 homers, 100 RBIs 90 runs and a .300 batting average. So why no love? Three reasons: 1) He plays for the Cubs, who are jinxed. 2) He has no protection. Jacque Jones? Enough said. And 3) He’s Aramis Ramirez. Because he’s never had the fantasy love, owners know they can afford to wait. And you should too. He’s a great looking fourth-round kind of guy in traditional turnover league – top-notch production after the hype players are gone.

The Fallback guys

Desperation. You've ignored third base, and now you are in the last three rounds of the draft seeking a third baseman. Elite? For get it. Sleepers and breakout candidates? Picked. Once again here are three guys that can be had because your draft is falling apart.
Adrian Beltre: Beltre breaks out once every five years, sow how come this year can't be it? He is the only guy in this category that has the talent to hit 30-plus homeruns and 100 RBI. A .300 average? It's in the realm of possibility. But this is Adrian Beltre, the biggest enigma in fantasy baseball. You can pine and hopes he reaches his talent level, or hope He gets 20 homers and a .280 average. It's not my fault you waited this long to draft a third baseman.
Joe Crede: Crede busted 30 homers with 94 RBI last season. Not bad for a guy that didn't get drafted. If you are even considering Crede, just have the expectations of a guy that will average around 6 hits a week. If he gets hot he can produce about 8 hits, but provide about 3 homers a week during his streak. Keep in mind that he struggled with back problems last season and was still able to get the solo shot. Crede is strictly a complimentary player. When he homers, consider yourself lucky. If your squad is balanced and produces across the board, then Crede is a good fit. Brandon Inge is a poor man's Crede ... which is pretty poor.
Melvin Mora: Mora's days of busting 25-plus homers are gone. His stolen bases are tailing off. The guy is getting old. One thing Mora can still do is hit. He lingers around 170 and last season, only Freddy Sanchez, Garrett Atkins, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Aramis Ramirez posted more hits than Mora. And to stick to a baseball cliché, he played in 155 games. So what does that mean? I'm not going to calculate how many hits he would have had if he was healthy ... Mora is getting old.

If you plan to take a gamble on one position, third base is probably it. Even after the top guys are off the board, there's still plenty of talent to go around, and even after that there are a handful of true sleeper/rookie types that stand a very good chance of making a serious impact this year.

Sleepers

Edwin Encarnacion: I feel kind of silly putting this guy here, but with so much talent available at 3b, it's not out of the realm of possibility that this guy could go in a round in the high teens. Of course, he's not exactly an unknown quantity, being as he put up solid numbers (15 HR, 72 RBI, .276 AVG) as a rookie. But if he's still available around Round 17, there's no reason this guy can't be a legit fantasy starter.

Mark Teahen: Again, this guy could end up going earlier, but since his starting position is not guaranteed and because he still hasn't played a full season, he could end up dropping. Before getting hurt, he was blossoming into a full-fledged fantasy stud, hitting 11 HRs, driving in 40 and batting .318 in the first 53 games after the All-Star Break. If you can get this guy in Round 18 or later, count your lucky stars and grab him.
Alex Gordon: His presence is the biggest thing dragging down Teahen's potential value. Gordon enters the season as the Rookie of the Year favorite despite never having a single at-bat above Double-A, and playing just one year as a professional. But what a year it was: Gordon hit 29 HRs, drove in 101, batted .325 and even stole 22 bases in 130 games at Double-A Wichita to earn Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year honors. It's hard to imagine him developing into a legit fantasy starter this year, but if you're in a keeper league you could do a lot worse.
Wilson Betemit: In just 373 official at-bats with the Dodgers last year, he hit 18 HRs and drove in 53 runs. Simply extrapolating that over a season worth of starting would leave you him with about 30 HRs and 90 RBI. Since he'll probably get a chance to start this year, he's worth a gamble with one of your last picks.
Andy Marte: Two years ago, The Baseball Prospectus named him as their top prospect. Two trades later (from Atlanta to Boston to Cleveland), he's finally getting a chance to start. He's shown the ability to hit 20-30 homers and could drive in 80-90 runs just by playing everyday in that Indians lineup. He flopped last year in 50 major league games (.287 OBP) so feel free to expect a lot, but be willing to accept looking somewhere else if he doesn't start strong.

Monday's Forum: Second base draft preview

Second base, like catcher, has been the traditional spot where fantasy teams just hope to get by. That's not the case anymore. While Chase Utley is clearly the top player at the position (what doesn't he do?), there are another three to five guys that will put up numbers usually only seen at the corner positions. And even beyond that, there are at least five or six more than should put up respectable fantasy numbers.
What does this mean? If you don't grab Utley, you can probably afford to wait until the mid rounds to fill this position. The guys you can grab in rounds 10-17 are not going to be appreciably different than the ones you'll grab three or four rounds earlier, they'll probably just have better name recognition.
The nice thing is, this position has a little of everything. There are plenty of base-stealer, run-scorer types, but there are some guys that could drive in close to 100 runs and hit 20-30 homers. Anyone of the guys we have ranked in the top 10 could hit .300, and, in fact, have at some point in their career.
One thing to keep in mind, neglecting this position can cause huge problems. Although there should be plenty talent to go around, don't get stuck with someone outside the top 10 as your starter, and trust me, someone in your league will. While gambling on someone like Ian Kinsler or Rickie Weeks is not a horrible idea because of their upside, you don't want to be the guy trotting Luis Castillo out there everyday. It's place you can easily lose ground, and fast.

Second Base Rankings

1	2	3	4	5
Chase Utley(30 votes)	Robinson Cano (24)	Chone Figgins (24)	Brian Roberts (15)	Jorge Cantu (15)

6	7	8	9	10
Jeff Kent (14 votes)	Freddy Sanchez (13)	Dan Uggla (11)	Ian Kinsler (9)	Jorge Lugo (4)

The Elite: By Free San Jose

The elite tier of this position is really just one name long: Chase Utley. But there are other guys that should be very good.
Chase Utley: It would not be hard to imagine him leading his position in every significant category, except stolen bases where he could still get 15-20. Assuming he stays healthy, a conservative projection has Utley hitting 25 homers, driving in 100, scoring 100, hitting better than .300 and stealing 10 bases. I don't think I'd take him with a top 5 pick, but he's fair game after that.
Robinson Cano: There are some who believe the Yankees have the next great player at this position. While the book is still open, he could challenge for a batting title while providing some power. He hit 15 HRs after the All-Star break, but he's not going to do that for an entire season. He will, however, collect hits in bunches, drive guys in and score runs.
Chone Figgins: He's probably not going to start very often at second as long as Howie Kendrick is playing, but he should be eligible at 2b in most leagues. This guy can win the stolen bases category by himself and will score runs in bunches. The fact that he can probably play three different positions isn't bad either.

Fallback second basemen: By Newspaperman

Once the top-notch guys are gone, you might think you’re left with slim pickings. Well, guess again. Second base has become kind of a surprising fantasy position as there are about a dozen guys -- including those in the elite class -- who can be plugged into any fantasy lineup.
After Utley, Cano and Figgins are gone, owners should be looking at a group of seven guys headlined by a solid contributor of steals, two former top-second sackers, and a pair of newbies:
Brian Roberts: If you’re in need of a second baseman who will run the base paths with a vengeance while helping your team in other categories, then Brian Roberts is your guy. While playing for the Baltimore Orioles is definitely a drawback, Roberts is one of two bats on the team who have any fantasy relevance. Roberts has averaged about 30 stolen bases over the last three seasons while hovering around the .300 mark and will likely do so again. He’s just a notch below the multi-positional Chone Figgins.
Jorge Cantu: Entering the 2006 season, Jorge Cantu shot to the top of the second base ranking after leading the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in homeruns the year before. Things have changed. Cantu was easily tabbed as one of the biggest busts in fantasy baseball last season as he was hampered by leg injuries. He still managed to get 400-plus at bats, but the results weren’t good: .249 average, 103 hits, 14 homers, 62 RBIs and 40 runs. Coming into this season, many owners will swear off of him. You shouldn’t. As long as you don’t take him before the aforementioned top four, you’ll be OK. He’s a big risk-reward guy who could bounce back and approach his ’05 totals.
Jeff Kent: Before there was Chase Utley, there was Jeff Kent. A former National League Most Valuable Player, Kent can still be a decent fantasy player, just don’t expect him to be the fantasy superstar he once was. He’ll longer break the 30-homer mark, but he’s still a 100-run, 100-rbi, 20-plus homer guy who will hit close to .300 if healthy. Word of warning though, he will be 39 this year.
Freddy Sanchez: What kind of game is this when the National League batting champion won’t even be ranked in the top five at his own position? Sanchez blew fantasy owners away with his high batting average (.344), high hit total (200) and position eligibility (2b, 3b, SS). (Side note: If you’re playing yahoo leagues, he’s still eligible at all three positions) Don’t confuse Sanchez as a top-tier guy or a super young stud. The guy is 29, but he’s been one of those bound-to-breakout “prospects” who scouts have always raved about. Look for him to approach his ’06 totals and possibly enjoy an increase in runs scored as the Pirates obtained Adam LaRoche to join Jason Bay in hitting behind Sanchez.
Dan Uggla: If you thought we were ludicrous for ranking Sanchez so low, what can you say about where Uggla has been placed? If it weren’t for Jorge Cantu’s less-than-stellar sophomore season, Uggla might be a top-five second baseman. But because Cantu taught many owners a lesson last season, some will let others take the gamble on Uggla. His ’06 final stats were beautiful: 27 homers, 172 hits, 90 RBIs, 105 runs and a .282 average. If you’re a gamblin’ man, take Uggla as he could be your savior and burn owners who shunned him.

Sleepers: By The Jon

Second base looks like a throwaway position, but look at the depth chart. There will be productive players available at the end of the draft. Placido Polanco, Kaz Matsui, Mark Loretta and possibly Julio Lugo can be had in the last two rounds. With the exception of Kaz, they have proven track records and will do just enough to not hurt your team. Matsui will get another chance to play everyday in Colorado, but isn't that 30-homer hitter known in small-ballpark Japan. If he learns how to hit the gaps with the Rockies, he could have relevance again. But you know that. Here are three young guys that have shown flashes of breakout seasons.
Jose Lopez: He's an All-Star, posted 170 hits with 10 homers and 79 RBI and he didn't even make TheBaseballStars Top 10 rankings. An injured ankle will keep him out early in the season, but Lopez deserves a spot on your team if you missed out on the top-six second baseman. He is another version of an early Jose Vidro when Vidro used to be healthy. So what type of player is that? Oh, the one that can notch 9 hits in any given week and keep you in the running in the previous stat and will help out in batting average. He can be an everyday player with a steady statline that will only add to stats you got from picking better offensive options at other positions early in the draft.
Howie Kendrick: FreeSanJose and Newspaperman can spew off Kendrick's performance in the Angels' farm system and tell you how much upside he has. Whatever. I look at his production in his 72 games: .285, 4 homers, 30 RBI and 6 stolen bases. Would I grab him early like Robinson Cano last year when I picked him in the 8th round in a keeper league? No, his average shows he's still learning to adjust to the majors. I will pick him in the last two rounds of any draft and take credit when he produces in all categories. Even if he only hovers around 15 homers and a .280 average, it will better than Craig Biggio or Jeff Kent that will have gotten picked five rounds earlier.
Rickie Weeks: He's a Brewer who played 95 games last season. His power is questionable with 8 homers, but it is his 100 hits that have to look at. A safe gambler would expect 165 to 175 hits with 10-17 homers this season with half of his games played in a hitter's park. That is a safe bet. A longshot would expect the same 165 to 175 hits with 20 homers. Either bet would be a solid pickup that won't cost much in a draft.

The Thursday Hypeness: Draft Preview: Closers

Relief Pitcher Rankings

1	2	3	4	5
Francisco Rodriguez(Votes: 27)	Joe Nathan	Mariano Rivera	B.J. Ryan	Huston Street

6	7	8	9	10
Billy Wagner (17)	Trevor Hoffman	Bobby Jenks	J.J. Putz	Brad Lidge

Saves are steals. That's all they are. They are situational. Wait, I take away the previous comment. Saves suck. A closer can deliver a low WHIP and ERA, but they can also screw you over. How does 9.00 ERA look? That's one run for a closer. I also like 18.00, 36.00 and the great 54.00. I have also seen the ever-popular infinity WHIP. Most closers today can't pitch past three batters, have weak mental makeups and will give you 75 innings at most. Screw those guys.
Which of course leads us on to how to draft them.
Don't pick two dominant closers in rounds 4 or 5. Amateur.
If getting a top closer does it for you, then go ahead and grab Rod riguez, Nathan or Rivera in the 5th round. Get a second-tier guy in rounds 11 through 13 and you are set. Easy.
Or if you really have the jewels, get a dominant guy in the fourth round and then load up on three solid starting pitchers that qualify as a relief pitchers and load up ERA, strikeouts, wins and WHIP.
And for the owners who drop the ball and get a crappy closer, you can always scour the wire once the season starts and get lucky with a breakthrough guy. The odds for that are about 25 to 75. Just be sure to get steady middle relievers such as Scot Shields, Rafael Soriano, Scott Proctor and Joel Zumaya (if he isn't drafted). When can The Baseball Stars write about outfielders?

The Elite

Francisco Rodriguez: He led the league with 47 saves and struck out 97 batters. He gave up 14 runs while posting a 1.73 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He's got all the flash and will let you sleep good at night without having to worry about playing him week-to-week. I would be more impressed if he could pitch more than 73 innings, but that is nitpicking. He's that "Karate Kid" song during the tournament montage. Elisabeth Shue is hot.
Joe Nathan: Rock steady. He's a Honda civic as compared to the Rodriguez 1968 GTO model. His 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 95 Ks are there which covers up the fact that Minnesota is hurting for starting pitching. That in turn limits Nathan's appearances. He notched 36 saves in 68.1 innings. Nathan was also comatose for the first two mon ths of the season with six saves — 3 for each month. Can we talk about Elisabeth Shue in "The Saint" instead?
Mariano Rivera: No stats needed for this guy. He has been getting the job done for the past 10 years. He has one, possibly three good seasons left in him. Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, they are all there. And he can pitch ... more than one inning. That's more due to a shoddy Yankees bullpen, but it will help when he gives up one of his 15 earned runs for a season. Well that was stat. Sue me. Mariano is the most consistent option in the game even if age and injuries are a concern, which even happens to an all-time great such as Rivera. Hey, it happens to everyone, even Elisabeth Shue. I still can't get over that slow motion beach scene in Karate Kid after Daniel-san runs off to play soccer with his buddies. And here I am th inking closers are losers.

Fallback closers

As far as I'm concerned, once you've missed out on the top six or so closers, all these guys pretty much start to look the same. Either they aren't overpowering (Hoffman), will get limited opportunities (Putz) or are not even guaranteed fulltime jobs (Lidge).
For my money, here are the three guys I'd target once those top s ix are off the board.
1. J.J. Putz: He took over the closer's job in May and was one of the top guys from that point on. He strikes guys out (12 per 9 innings last year) and doesn't walk guys (13 in 78.1 innings). If he didn't play for the Mariners, I'd say he'd be in that elite group.
2. Trevor Hoffman: He's not sexy, he's getting old and he'll have bouts of inconsistency, but he'll also end the season with at least 40 saves. You just can't go wrong with this guy. Don't expect to pile up extra stats like Ks, but he's not going to hurt you in other areas.
3. Brad Lidge: Two years ago, I thought this guy was the second coming of Dennis Eckersley. Obviously, he's not in that kind of heady company anymore, but he's got tons of upside. He still strikes guys out by the bunches (12.5 per 9) and is only two seasons removed from one of the all-time great closer campaigns. You can do a lot worse late in the draft.

Sleepers/ rookies

This is the section where I’m supposed to tell you about the next Jonathan Papelbon, some youngster who is going to come at the beginning of the season and dominate at the end of games while you lead your league wire to wire.
Well if you’re looking for that advice, you may as well look elsewhere because I’m not going to blow smoke and tell you that anyone will repeat that performance.
But the fact of the matter is that there is at least one young pitcher who should have a closing gig on opening day, and a handful of others who figure to see their share of bullpen work this season and could be of some relevance to owners at some point this season.
The first guy to watch is Taylor Tankersley, the front runner for the Florida Marlins closing job. Tankersley put up excellent numbers last season. In 41 innings, he racked up 36 strikeouts, had an ERA under 3.00 and racked up three saves in addition to a trio of wins. If he can lock up the job, look out. He could get see a nice chunk of save opportunities if the Marlins can continue what they started last season.
Fantasy owners also should keep an eye on Twins’ middle reliever Pat Neshak and Padres’ setup man Cla Meredith.
Neshak is blocked at closer, but he dominated in his brief pro debut last summer posting a 2.19 ERA over 37 innings while striking out 57 major leaguers. Even though he has almost not shot at closing, his relief eligibility could be crucial if the Twins decide to put him the rotation.
Meanwhile Meredith surprised fantasy owners last season by posting an ERA around 1.00 over 50-plus innings. He’s pitching the seventh inning for San Diego, but if primary set-up man Scott Linebrink gets traded as has been rumored, Meredith will be one injury away from getting the ball in the ninth inning. Closer Trevor Hoffman has been a solid throughout his career, but he is 39 this season. Anything could happen.
In addition to the young arms, owners should track the situations in Chicago, where Kerry Wood could find himself in the closing mix; Detroit, where Joel Zumaya may end up being the hammer of god that Tigers fans wish for; and Boston, where the Red Sox have a Joel Piniero, Mike Timlin, Manny DelCarmen and Craig Hansen vying for the closer role.

Draft Preview: Catchers

It used to be that fantasy owners had only two viable options at catcher: Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez. After that, talent levels fell significantly to the likes of Jason Kendall and Mike Lieberthal, guys who you could likely take in the late rounds of any draft. But things have changed in recent years.
Piazza and Rodriguez still remain decent fantasy plays but they are no longer considered to be in the elite class. Instead they’ve been replaced by a three youngsters and have been joined by about half a dozen other catchers who could easily be plugged into any lineup.The position has changed over the years, just like the face of baseball. Youth has infiltrated the game at every position, and catcher is no exception as two of the three elite (Joe Mauer and Brian McCann) are 23 and the third (Victor Martinez) is 28.

Top 10 Catcher Rankings

1	2	3	4	5
Victor Martinez (Votes: 29)	Joe Mauer (28)	Brian McCann (22)	Kenji Johjima (18)	Ivan Rodriguez (18)

6	7	8	9	10
Jorge Posada (Votes: 15)	Ramon Hernandez (11)	Russell Martin (7)	Paul Lo Duca (4)	Gerard Laird (1)

The Elite: By Newspaperman

Many fantasy owners like to wait on catchers, and I can’t blame them. But, if you’ve got a chance to lock up one of the elite, you better pull the trigger because their production can be equivalent to a second-tier outfielder.
Entering this season, there is little dispute as to who the elite catchers are. They are Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann.
Mauer, the American League batting champion, blew fantasy owners away last year by posting more than 180 hits while flirting with .400 in June and July. He ended the year as the first catcher in Major League history to lead the league in batting.
His talent is unquestionable. He entered 2006 as a some what of an injury risk because of knee surgery the prior year, which made him a bargain. That’s simply not the case here. Mauer is a lanky catcher who has one of the sweetest strokes in baseball, and in time figures to add some power to his arsenal.
Hitting in front of AL MVP Justin Morneau and super utility man Michael Cuddyer, pitchers have little choice but to throw Mauer hittable pitches, which always makes him a threat. When he’s in a groove, he can carry your team in the hits category, and when he’s off he’s as productive in that category as just about any second-tier outfielder in the game.
Grab him early and use the late-round selection you would have used on another catcher to pad your bench or rotation. Count on him for about 170 hits, 18 homers, 80 RBIs and 80 runs.
With Mauer firmly planted at the top of this year’s elite class, the race is on between Martinez and McCann for the No. 2 slot. In my rankings, I have Martinez slotted a bit higher than McCann mainly because he’s got more experience.
At this time last season, Martinez was the king of the castle. He was ranked higher than Mauer because of his durability and itch for the longball. But here he is now at No. 2.
Martinez, a switch hitter, is just like Mauer. He hits for power and average, and bats in a potent lineup. With bats such as Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner ahead of him, Martinez will flirt with the 90 RBI mark and could reach to 20-homerun plateau again as he enters his fourth full season. Martinez’s homeruns have declined each season. But does that really mean anything? Sure. What it means is Cleveland needs a No. 5 hitter to protect their stud catcher.
Once Mauer and Martinez are off the board, owners should turn their attention to McCann. Some could look at this 23-year-old and see another version of Joe Mauer, but with more power. McCann blasted 23 dingers last season.
What McCann did during the second-half of last season was truly dynamic. He hit 18 of his 23 homers during the final stretch of the season and managed to keep his average above .320. He also doubled his first-half RBI total and finished with 93.
With the lack of track record, it’s hard to suggest taking McCann before any of the aforementioned, and it’s conceivable that owners would rather select a proven player at this position.

Fallback catchers: By The Jon

Once you get past Newspaperman's gushing of the catcher position, it is time to face the truth: Some amateur like him will pick a one of the top three guys too high. That leaves you with two choices. Be more of an amateur and pick a catcher higher than the first guy, or have a catcher that can be picked in the later rounds while giving solid production on a fantasy offense that is loaded with more reliable producers at first base and the outfield. Obviously, take the second one. As for stats, these are catchers. You will be lucky with a .280 average, 10-12 homers and 70 RBI.
In no particular order.
Ramon Hernandez: He's injury prone and his average is suspect, but Hernandez is strictly a lucky homer and RBI guy. If you go heavy with solid, top-line fantasy producers who net hits, homers and RBI, anything that Hernandez does is an added bonus. And when he gets on a hot streak of three to four homers a week he can carry you offensively. He's not all good though. Expect a couple of weeks strung together where he gives 2 hits a week. Hey, that's why he is not elite.
Paul Lo Duca: The great Lo Duca. The catcher that can always be picked in the very last round. He can always be had, and if you want to reach high and spend a 15th rounder on him, he is yours. Lo Duca is the steadiest nongreat catcher out there. He gives you hits and runs this side of a second baseman. For a 15th rounder you can do a lot worse. Lo Duca is actually a guy that can be played every week and doesn't hurt you ... too much.
A.J. Pierzynski: Mr. Clubhouse is so steady, I can spell his last name without having to look it up. He is another Lo Duca, but with more power and he plays in the Chicago White Sox launching pad (hey, one cliché isn't too bad). He is the most all-around stat producer of the second-tier catchers and can also get on hot streaks for power and RBI. If you get him and Bengie Molina, you can interchange them and get steady if not subpar results at a position that is known as the catcher.

Sleepers: By Free San Jose

If ever there was a year to feel comfortable waiting on a catcher, this would be it. I can't remember the last time this position was so deep, both in potential and sure bets.

There's no reason to panic and take any of the guys beyond the top three before you're comfortable at the other positions, and if you do that, be prepared to take a gamble.

Here are a few guys worth doing that with:

None of these three are rookies, but they also have less than three years experience between them: Arizona's Miguel Montero, Pittsburgh's Ronny Paulino and Anaheim's Mike Napoli. None are guaranteed to get fulltime jobs, but if they do, any or all three could have big seasons. Montero is a legit threat to hit 20 HRs and hit close to .300; Paulino quietly put up a great season last year and could certainly improve om his 55 RBI and .310 batting average; and Napoli could put up power numbers similar to first basemen even though his batting average won't help.

If you end up without a catcher by the last couple rounds, there are worse gambles to take than Cincinnati's David Ross or Kansas City's Jason LaRue. Both have potential to hit 30 HRs ... but slow starts by either could mean little more than backup duty.

The Thursday Hypness: Ryan Howard: exposing a players true value every Thursday

I abhor hyperbole.
With that said, I’m going to do my best to avoid it when I gush over Ryan Howard.
Before I dazzle you with some of the raw numbers this 6-foot-4, 250-pound stud has put up in less than two full seasons, let me first get some things out of the way. Howard is not yet as complete a hitter as Albert Pujols. He is not as far ahead of his peers as Johan Santana. He will not be able to help you in as many categories as Alfonso Soriano. And he happens to a play a position that has many similar hitters, unlike Alex Rodriguez.
Yet I would take him with my first pick of the draft, regardless of my draft position.
Granted, this is probably a reach if I’m Nos. 1 or 2, but I also happen to think Howard is that special.
Although he’s 27 years old, he has played in just 266 major league games and registered fewer than 1,000 at-bats.
In that time, he’s managed to club 82 homers, drive in 217 runs, get on base nearly 40 percent of the time and register a .624 slugging percentage. He’s shown enough command of the strike zone to cover up the holes in his swing and has more opposite-field power than any player in the game today.
Some of his detractors (The Jon) will probably point out the fact that Howard hit 24 homers during one 21-game stretch, and that without that run his numbers weren’t nearly as spectacular. Or that he hit just two homers over the final 20 games. They’ll probably also point to his 181 strikeouts and say he’s too free of a swinger to be a truly elite hitter.
I look at those same things and see them as signs that maybe 2006 was not a career year and that it only is a preview of things to come.
Think about it. If Howard can become more consistent, he could avoid streaks like the one at the end of last season. If he can cut down on his strikeouts, he could possibly challenge for a batting title.
Looked at another way, despite Howard’s sudden lack of homers, he still managed to slug .763 and hit .387 during the final month of the season. He also hit more doubles that month than in any other and cut down on his strikeouts.
I don’t see a player who the league figured out, I see a player who figured out what the league was trying to do to him and excelled.
This guy very well could get even better.
When it comes to your fantasy draft, I don’t think I need to convince anyone Howard is worth the gamble. But some might think they could afford to go in another direction and still manage to find someone with a similar skill set.
While that may be true to a degree, don’t allow yourself to think you can get someone such as Travis Hafner, David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez. If you’re picking high enough in the draft for Howard, none of those three guys will be around by the time your next selection rolls around. Be prepared to roll the dice with someone like Adam Dunn or Mark Teixeira, two guys who come with considerable risk in a relative sense.
Howard is still on an upward trajectory, take him anywhere you can get him and don’t look back.

Here is the hype surrounding Ryan Howard. He's young. He hit 58 home runs and posted 149 RBI. He is involved in whether he is a top-five producer in fantasy baseball.
So let's break down this hype. You decide from there.
Ryan Howard is not young. He's 27 and will be 28 in November. Albert Pujols is younger. He was born in January 1980. Howard was born in 1979.
Part of the allure of a young player is that he has the potential to add on to his already remarkable skills. A hitter's peak starts at 27. Howard has one full season under his belt as a player. This era's stand out hitters of Pujols and Vladimir Guerrero started making their marks in their early 20s. Howard made his at 27. This is Howard at his apex. Another hitter who got close to the ever-changing home run record. He will be consistent for years to come.
He will not be a young phenom that gets better and better and builds on his burgeoning talent. Howard has a ceiling and he has hit it. Even if that ceiling is impressive as it is.
His 58 home runs. Great. Combine those with 182 hits and a .313 average, and they are solid. Pujols, Guerrero and Alfonso Soriano are really the only hitters that can post higher hit totals while combining legit power than Howard.
Pujols finished with 177, but was hurt for a full good month. He would have totaled 200 hits and been comparable to power.
Guerrero and Chase Utley were the only players last season to have 200 hits and 30-plus homeruns. And Utley is at the ever-scarce 2nd base spot.
The difference of 18 hits is huge in fantasy baseball. A 200 hitter hardly ever has a prolonged slump. Guerrero's worst month was in June when he had a .243 average. He had 25 hits. It was the only month he was below 30. Howard had two months where he topped 30 hits. August and September. 39 and 36. Homers: 14 and 9. These are numbers. Howard exceeds in some areas and lacks in others.
The RBI are great. There is no argument when there are 149 of them. Neither is his .425 on-base percentage. Those numbers are not a guarantee from season to season. They are situational. A few players such as Pujols, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz can boast most of those categories every season. They have a track record. Howard has one year ... at age 27.
And let's look at that stretch of 24 homers during one 21-game stretch. The top power options in the game can do that. There would be no surprise if Manny, Purple Lips, Pujols, Ortiz, Soriano, Travis Hafner or Andruw Jones did that. They are the elite power hitters.
Howard did that twice. He hit 13 and 9 homers in a two-month span before the All-Star break and then hit 14 and 9 in August and September. To have two streaks like that is more of an anomaly than standard practice. With Howard's history, I can tell you ... nothing. It was his first full year.
But I will tell you this: There are better all-around players than Howard in Pujols and Soriano. I would take Guerrero over Howard right now because of his track record. Utley and Jose Reyes play at shallower positions, grab more hits, post a better average and in Reyes case, more steals. I would seriously consider Utley over Howard, but not Reyes.
Howard's two streaks were a fluke. Getting a similar streak — Singular not Plural — is not a fluke.
Howard is a great power hitter, but he isn't hands-down better than Ortiz. Ortiz has a better track record. Hafner played 30 fewer games than Howard, hits in a better lineup and had 42 KOs and 117 RBI. And if I wanted to look past the hype and wanted steady stats from a superior hitter, I would go with Manny.
Howard is good. Give me one more season of 55 homers and then we can talk No. 2 overall pick — Pujols is the No. 1 pick for the next three years. Until then Howard will be a top power option. Nothing more.

He’s young. He has no where to go but up. He’s a future Hall of Famer.
Enough with the cliché crap already. We all know Ryan Howard is a freaky baseball talent who mashes the ball like few others. But does that make him a top five fantasy pick? Absolutely not.
In my humble opinion, Howard is second-most over-hyped player heading into the 2007 fantasy season. We all loved the show Howard put on at Home Run Derby, and we thoroughly enjoyed his run at Maris’ legit homerun record. But that does not put him in the top five.
When you’re selecting a player in the top five, you’re looking for a guy who will absolutely kill your opposition in at least three categories, or someone who can post excellent (not just solid) numbers in four or more categories. (For the record: Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano are there.)
Howard is a flat out power hitter. And we love it.
But we must not forget that his talent to hit the long ball may be so frightening that opposing teams may be scared into taking the bat right out of his hand by intentionally walking him. We also must not forget the 180 strikeouts he posted last season, which were second in the National League only to fellow bopper Adam Dunn. And we can’t let his age cloud our judgment on draft day.
First things first, Howard will get the Bonds treatment this year. Period. So you may as well forget those dreams you had of Howard thumping 75 homers, let alone surpassing Maris’ 61. He has no lineup support and pitchers have no reason to put anything over the plate. The result will be a solid player, but hardly someone worth selecting with a top five overall pick.
Think back to 2002, the year after Bonds set the single-season homerun mark. Entering that season, fantasy owners were clamoring over the opportunity to own the Homerun Champ. They figured he’d come close to repeating the numbers and they’d laugh their way to a fantasy title. Instead what owners got was almost 200 walks, 46 homers and a .370 batting average. Those are numbers … if you’re the lizard and you’re job is the manage the San Francisco Giants past the Anaheim Angels in the World Seires.
But in fantasy leagues, it was frustrating to watch the slugger get the free pass after free pass. You drafted the guy to hit homers, not boost your OBP.
As it pertains to Howard, he’ll likely post 40 homers, drive in 120 and score 100+ times, but his average won’t approach that of Bonds’ ’02 number and he may be held to 150 hits or so. Again, excellent baseball stats, but those numbers can be had elsewhere in your draft. With your first pick you could go for a better overall position player (multiple tools) or select a staff ace.
The second factor I think owners need to consider is his strikeout total (181). Granted that he is relatively young and that his whiffs will likely decrease (for one reason or another), owners simply cannot forget about those lost at-bats, or chances.
Follow me here: Hypothetically, the owner who has Howard is only going to get two chances a game for their No. 1 pick to produce. Breakdown: If Howard appears at the plate four times in a game and gets walked twice by pitchers who are scared (or because the situation warrants it), that leaves him with two official at-bats. With his strikeout rate, it’s conceivable that he would punch out once every four official at-bats, further depleting the chances of him making contact and producing the numbers you expect of your No. 1. Essentially you’ve got a glorified pinch hitter.
Now this strikeout stuff (confusing, I know) may seem contradictory because I said Soriano (fourth in the NL in strikeouts) was a top five selection. But Soriano offers much more than just homers. He’s a great all-around fantasy player, although the batting average could be a bit higher, and there’s always that chance he could move back to second base.
And lastly, baseball is in an interesting time. It’s truly become a young man’s game again and fantasy owners are buying into this philosophy. Now I understand that things are different in keeper leagues and age matters, but in a typical annual turnover league it shouldn’t. That is why you should not look at Howard and think, “Gee, he’s 27 years old and entering his 'prime.’”
That’s crap. Fact is the guy is going into his second full Big League season and very few hitters (Albert Pujols, Baby!) have this league figured out by then. He’s going to struggle a bit and you need to understand that. Don’t get sucked into youth hype with Howard. Today’s young ball players all possess multiple tools and one of them is speed. Howard doesn’t have a single stolen base in his entire professional career. He’s a power hitter. And you should know by now that fantasy baseball is not all about power hitters. If it were, Adam Dunn would be a first rounder.

Monday's Forum: Monday, bloody Monday

Pitchers and catchers are report this week to Spring Training and isn't it a glorious thing. The smell of the grass and the purity of every young boy's dream in the U.S. of A. comes to light in this glorious occasio ... Man shut the hell up. This is The Baseball Stars. That crap doesn't fly here.
We don't write stuff that is going to be written by every other crap-journalist out there such as extolling the greatness of Spring Training.
I know it's great. You know it's great. So let's leave it that.
I am one month away from trash talking, first-pick having and kicking-a$$ all over God's Spring Training.
So what are we going to write today? Whatever we feel like. Welcome to Free Forum Monday, which stands for: The Baseball Stars didn't have any good topics this week, so we are writing whatever we want to.
And to start it off, The Jon will take one of the oldest journalist tricks in the book: "Writing about three separate topics because I am too lazy to write one argument that needs to be effective and developed."
Here we go, fools ...
HOUSEKEEPING: Over the next month and a half, The Baseball Stars will provide the millions, dare I say billions across the planet that faithfully read our site with a draft preview. But how do we do that while maintaining our vision of being original? That is something The Baseball Stars have been fighting about. Newspaperman has been crying over his Your-Momma's-so-Fat defeat to me where I won with saying his mom is the lead singer of The Dixie Chicks. And why the hell did they win so many Grammy Awards? I'm tired of a bunch of old-time rich people telling me what good music is.
Gnarls Barkley is tight. Nicole Simpson can't rap. Grammies you suck. And Mary J. Blige, stop crying and shut the hell up.
This hatred has of course lead me to FreeSanJose. We have come to blows over this draft preview. Despite all of this, The Baseball Stars draft preview is coming Monday.
On another note, Poi Dog will be incognito for a while. We are going to miss his layman terms and telling us that Johan Santana and Roy Halladay are good pitchers. He was going to come at us this week by saying Albert Pujols is a really, really good hitter. He is a genius.
TRADING: I am the best trader on the planet. I have pulled off gems, son. Someday, the multitude will hear the brilliance of The Ichiro Trade. It has to be brilliant, it has it's own name. There has been a new trade added to the mix: The Daisuke Matsuzaka trade. Keep up.
I was down a first round pick after I sold my soul to FreeSanJose to get Francisco Liriano. I gave up on the season after Liriano got hurt and held a fire sale where I got a first round pick from Poi Dog. I realized my team was pretty good, so I traded for Bobby Abreu and ended up in finishing up in second place in the playoffs after knocking Newspaperman to the place where he belongs in the semis. I traded Abreu for a third round pick, shipped that third for Michael Young and traded Young and my first pick for the overall first pick in the draft. I will pick Daisuke Matsuzaka with the first overall pick. A trade isn't a one time deal. You may have to pull of three trades to get exactly what you want. That's what makes me The Jon ... i.e. the best.
AND FINALLY: As egotistical as The Jon is, he didn't create this site for himself. This is for you. We are going through a little bit of overhaul on the site to make it easier for you to be a part of this whole experiment.
We want feedback.
We want questions.
We want you to start discussions.
We want you to rip us to shreds.
We just want your participation.
Fantasy baseball is the best fake sport of all time. Let's enjoy the ride together ... but you have to pay for the food and gas.
Peace, fools ...
The Jon

By my own admission, I’m addicted to statistical projections and opinion.
I love fantasy magazines, Web sites, and discussion. I enjoy seeing people talk about the players I own in keeper leagues, as well as those who I target on draft day.
But while I tend to overindulge in fantasy information, it should be understood that it is never a good thing to take any publication’s opinions and statistical projections as the word of God.
And projections are basically a guess – sometimes not even educated -- or a statistical average of a player’s past. Take a look at most fantasy magazines or sites. More times than not all the projector has done is take the last two or three years of statistics, add them up, find a middle-ground and then publish the result as their own projection. Well guess what, this game doesn’t work that way.
This game can’t be won strictly on someone crunching numbers before the season starts. There is so much more to this. There is some value in projections, but by no means is it truly indicative of how a player will actually perform. By using projection and opinion as the foundation of your reasoning, you could miss out on certain players or draft a guy too high.
Examples: Justin Morneau and Freddy Sanchez.
Who at the beginning of last season really thought Morneau would be the American League MVP (even though Jeter arguably deserved it more), and that Sanchez would be the National League batting champion?
Sure everyone thought Morneau would be a slugger who would post 30+ homers if he stayed healthy, but no one thought he would hit .320 and drive in 130 runs. And not even Freddy Sanchez’s mother, let alone some hack writing about fantasy baseball, thought Sanchez would get anywhere near a batting title. Ever.
And this year projections could really kill fantasy owners who are looking at Garrett Atkins and Ryan Howard. According to one publication, Atkins’ 2007 stats will be akin to David Wright’s 06 stats (minus the steals), and Howard will blast 60 homers.
Really? Well then crown their asses.
To me, projections -- as well as opinions -- are another form of entertainment and should be viewed as another element that helps you understand how this game is played or what is expected of someone. (I like to add projections in my Hypness pieces because I think it helps the reader understand how I feel about a certain player.)
All of the stuff that we discuss on this Web site and things you read elsewhere are beliefs of individual fantasy players. They are not words from some “expert,” as some Web sites, news channels and agencies like to proclaim. Just because some guy writes about fantasy baseball over at one of the three- or four-letter networks does not make him an expert. It just means that he’s a good writer with a journalism background who gives a lot of advice -- often stating the obvious -- and to top it off it doesn’t even have to be good.
But like you, I enjoy this banter, which is why I am writing this and you are reading it. I find that it keeps me in touch with the fantasy baseball world during the off season and actually helps me prepare for the upcoming year.
I like to read what people say about particular players because sometimes I agree, other times I do not, and on occasion some else’s opinion may open my eyes. The important thing to remember about this game is to be open-minded, but not to the point where your own beliefs are shaped solely on someone else’s thoughts.

I prey to one god: Statistical analysis. Some use their guts, others their eyes. I use a calculator.
This is odd coming from someone who abhors math and science as I do, yet I am totally intrigued. And I'll admit, it pretty much started with "Moneyball." (If you don't know what that is, stop reading)
You see, as much as I may not actually enjoy crunching numbers myself, I understand it. I happen to believe there are such things as repeatable skills (hitting homers and striking people out) and non-repeatable skills (coming to bat with runners on base and having a good defense behind you). I also believe in track records: If you've done it repeatedly, you're likely to do it again.
And those are the things at the heart of statistical analysis, which makes life a lot easier, if not less interesting.
While there is much to be loved about baseball and its unpredictability, that's for the folks who buy pennants, eat hot dogs and go hoarse cheering at games. Fantasy baseball is about none of those things: it is about cold, hard facts. It shouldn't matter to you if ARod hit a grandslam in the bottom of the ninth to win the game or hit it in the sixth with his team up by six runs; in fantasy baseball they count just the same. Above all else, you should keep that in mind when making your team.
Invariably, you're going to read about how David Eckstein or Orlando Cabrera can help your team ... that's my definition of hype. Unless a player can do something particularly well (hit homers, strike people out), I don't want him. I could care less if he "does the little things" or "contributes to the cause." I want guys who mash, steal bases and score runs. If they don't do one of those three things better than half their peers, they won't be considered for my squad.
There is no room for sentimentality in this game. I have overhauled my roster of my keeper-league team three times over in five years. The most I've ever kept one player in three years, and it's not for lack of success. I've traded Alex Rodriguez in his prime, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder the year they moved to the National League and Francisco Liriano just as he was blowing up ... and I made out like a bandit every time. I have a saying: No one on my team is ever untouchable.
And it all comes back to the cold-hearted truth of statistical analysis. When every player simply represents a number, your fantasy baseball life makes a lot more sense.

The Thursday Hypness: Jose Reyes: exposing a players true value every Thursday

With the first pick of the 2007 fantasy baseball draft, Newspaperman selects … Jose Reyes, shortstop, New York Mets.
What!? Are you on crack, Newspaperman?
No. Actually it’s speed and smack -- 60 stolen bases and roughly 20 homeruns worth.
With all due respect to Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Alex Rodriguez – the other four candidates for the top selection – if I were entering a new keeper league tomorrow and had the first pick, my choice would be Reyes.
I suppose that statement speaks volumes about how much I like this guy.
I mean any of the aforementioned players are worthy of the top slot in such a league. But for my money, Reyes is the man. Give me speed, pop, 200 hits, 120 runs, 80 RBIs and a .300 batting average and I’m there. And to top it off he plays shortstop, one of the shallowest positions in terms of fantasy leagues, and hits at the top of one of the most dangerous lineup in the National League. Did I mention he’s only 23!?
Honestly, my decision to take Reyes at No. 1 may or may not be much of a shock to you. If you’ve been paying any attention to fantasy baseball this offseason, you know all about the hype surrounding this guy — every fantasy publication has him ranked in the top five.
But is he really that good? Absolutely.
Remember when LeBron James came into the NBA and people wondered where he should be drafted in fantasy leagues, particularly keeper types? Three years removed from his senior prom, LeBron is worthy of the No. 1 overall selection in keeper leagues. And I think we fantasy baseball owners are facing a similar situation now with Reyes.
This is probably the most energetic player in the game today and he’s got the talent — offensively and defensively — to back it up. And statistically speaking he’s getting stronger.
He’s swiped 60 or more stolen bases in each of the last two seasons, and figures to do so again this season. With the stick, Reyes has increased his batting average and hits total in both of his full seasons. But perhaps the most telling statistic that speaks to his success is his on-base percentage.
Entering the 2006 season, Reyes had two drawbacks: questions about his healthy and a lack of plate discipline. But after a second consecutive injury-free season, the health issue has disappeared. And the fact that he raised his OBP from .300 to .354 while doubling his walk total (27 to 53) and keeping his strikeouts (81 in 647 at-bats) to a minimum has critics signing his praises.
Reyes is a freaky talent whose limits have yet to be defined. Especially since he hits at the top of the Mets lineup which is jam packed with power from Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Moises Alou. He figures to be a force to be reckoned with for many years. He’s hardly a flash in the pan.
Whether it is in keeper leagues or traditionally turnover types, Reyes is a guy who should not be underestimated on draft day. He’s definitely the top shortstop in any format, a top selection in keeper leagues and a top five pick in tradition turnover leagues.
In 2007, I see Reyes posting stats similar to: 190 hits, 15 homeruns, 70 RBIs, 125 runs, 60 stolen bases and a. 300 average. He’s Carl Crawford at shortstop in a stronger lineup.
And if Reyes continues to improve his OBP and the Mets lineup stays healthy (big IF), he could become the first player since Jeff Bagwell in 2000 to score more than 150 runs in a season. Just remember I called it.

Whoa, let's slow down. Before I start professing my love and start pulling my skirt up, let's put Jose Reyes in perspective.
Reyes is a complimentary player. He is worth being the first shortstop taken in any draft. He is worth being picked in the first round. But he is not a fantasy franchise player.
Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Purple Lips, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero.
These players all do something exceptionally well whether it is homers, hits, RBI or overall performance with 30 plus homers.
All of these guys can carry your team. Reyes can't. He is an overall player, who provides steady stats across the board from week to week, but he just doesn't do one thing well. He is a Carl Crawford who has great stats at the end of the season that makes fantasy baseballers salivate while combing fantasy magazines. Crawford is a great player, but like Reyes he needs a supporting cast to be effective. Crawford and Reyes dupe fantasy managers and make them feel that they have all categories taken care of with one player. But since they have no one category that they dominate, their value is inflated. Where does Carl Crawford go in most drafts? Late first round or even a slip to the early third round.
Blasphemy? Sure. Let's look at Reyes and see if he qualifies as a franchise player.
Hits: Reyes has had 190 and 194 of them in 2005 and 2006. Those are good numbers. But to be elite, 200 hits are bare minimum. The ability for 200-plus hits is even better. Reyes had 694 and 647 at bats in those same two seasons. From the eight players that posted 200 hits or more in 2006, five players had less than Reyes' 647 at bats. Miguel Tejada had 214 hits with one more at-bat thane Reyes.
Average: 2006 was the first year that Reyes hit .300. Franchise hitters have to hover around .320 and up. Crawford also hovers around .300. An elite player needs to make the most of his at-bats. A .300 averages is better than average, which is average when looking at an elite player who isn't average. Sorry, just want to have another average in that sentence.
Homeruns: Reyes popped 19 of them, which is great for a shortstop, but Tejada, Jimmy Rollins had 24 and 25 homers. Tejada also had 100 RBI to Reyes' 81. Derek Jeter had 14 homers, 214 hits, 118 runs, 97 RBI, a .344 average and 34 stolen bases. I would take Jeter's stats any day.
Runs: 122. No problem here. But runs don't win championships. Runs are second tier along with ...
Steals: Reyes is the best base stealer in baseball with 60-plus for years to come. But steals are overvalued. Every year fantasy managers try to corner the market. They get a Reyes and a Juan Freedom and exclaim how they cornered the market on steals. With steals all you need is 90 a year total. Anything less is overkill. You can have 10 runs and 6 steals a week, and you win two categories. Great. Give me the more steady stats of hits, homers and RBI. All of them compliment each other. You even get runs out of those stats. Four is more than two.
Position scarcity: As a shortstop, Reyes is great. But there are a lot more options available and you don't have to reach high. Rollins and Carlos Guillen are a poor man's Reyes. Tejada, Jeter and Michael Young excel in multiple categories and in some areas outclass Reyes.
So where does that leave Reyes?
Keeper League: definitely a top five player.
Turnover league? Late first round.
Potential? Crazy unlimited ceiling.
Franchise ability? Overrated. A Carl Crawford who needs power guys and high-hits players to enjoy the full benefits known as Jose Reyes.

Jose Reyes’ status as bona fide stud is beyond debate – and that’s certainly saying something for a guy who won’t turn 24 until around the All-Star Break.
So the question is, just how good is this guy? Is a burgeoning star, the kind we’ve never really seen from a middle-infield position? Or is he of the more ordinary variety, someone who will always tantalize us with potential but never catapult into the ranks of the superstars?
For my money, I just don’t see this guy in the same light as Albert Pujols or Johan Santana or even Ryan Howard or Miguel Cabrera. I’m not convinced he’s a better bet than Alex Rodriguez or Alfonso Soriano.
Right there, I have him as no better than the seventh best player and I could see a valid argument for him dropping out of the Top 10 if your league has some unreal obsession with pitching.
So, no, I don’t quite buy the hype.
To me, Jose Reyes is only more valuable than Carl Crawford because of the position he plays, and I definitely don’t see Crawford as a Top 10 pick.
Give me Jimmy Rollins six or seven rounds later, or Rafael Furcal even later than that. Those guys will put up similar numbers of hits, runs and homers, and still steal 30 or 40 bases.
If you happen to be in a keeper league and already own Reyes, you thank your lucky stars, and watch him collect about 200 hits, score around 120 runs, do just enough to help in the power numbers and give you a big leg up in steals. But if you’re contemplating taking him with one of the first five picks of your draft, take a deep breath and consider that this is still a guy who only dominates in one category.

Monday's Forum: Stats to evaluate pitchers. Part 2 of 2

It takes time to be the best. It takes having a pitching staff of Matt Clement, Brad Penny, Sterling Hitchcock and Steve Sparks to realize that The Jon's way of approaching pitching wasn't cutting it. So this is how you pick pitchers: Get Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, John Lackey and Scott Kazmir as your staff.
Enjoy. My job is done.
Sorry, PoiDog moment.
Picking a staff is pretty easy. Target two bonafide aces. Guys that give you strikeouts, low ERA, WHIP and wins. After that, get a second-tier starter and then fill out the rest of your staff with workhorses. If you get weak and can't pass up offense in the early rounds, then there is one pitching stat that can give some semblance of a competitive staff. This is the part where I use a colon for added emphasis. Here it comes ... wait for it ... here it is: Innings pitched.
This is the part where I repeat a phrase to give it added emphasis (see, I am a good writer).
Innings pitched.
Pitching is thin in fantasy baseball. With the fall of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Jason Schmidt and the emasculation of Roger Clemens who can't even pitch a full season, there are only four aces that qualify to go in the first five rounds of a draft: Santana, Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter.
There are plenty of young arms that turned in good seasons such as Jeremy Bonderman, Webb, Scott Kazmir, Lackey, but what you need is way to rate them.
The first way to evaluate a pitcher is your gut. If you have a feeling about a guy, then pick him high and early. If you lose by following your instincts it is better than losing by picking guys that a friend or fantasy source tells you.
The second is innings pitched. Start at pitchers that have thrown 200 innings and work your way up. 200 innings pitched is the same as looking at a .300 hitter, there is just less pitching to go around. Pitching is a war of attrition and you end up having to pick pitchers who won't hurt you while giving you stats.
Take a look at Bronson Arroyo. He pitched 240 innings, posted a 14-11 record, 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 184 strikeouts. Now Arroyo isn't the second coming, he is an above-mediocre pitcher who got all of his stats because he was able stay in games. Even if Arroyo had a bad outing and gave up four to five runs, he was still able to pitch seven to eight innings. That is better than Cliff Lee who pitched 200 innings, had the same 14-11 record, but posted a 4.40 ERA, 129 Ks and 1.41 WHIP. Lee pitched past 7 innings 9 times out of 33 starts in 2006. Arroyo pitched past 7 innings in 21 out of 35 starts. Both guys have the prerequisite 200 innings, but Arroyo's ability to stay in games gave an owner a fighting chance in ERA, strikeouts from week to week. That is the pitcher you want: 200-inning workhorses with a sub-3 ERA will always give you a chance.
So keep it simple. Does a pitcher have 200 innings? Yes. Does he have a sub-3 ERA? Yes. A 1.50 or below WHIP? Yes. 150 or more Ks. Yes. Do you pick this pitcher in the later rounds? Yes. Can he have a bad outing here or there and give up 5 runs? Yes. When he gives up the five runs, will his manager allow him to pitch out at least 7 to 8 innings which in turn gives you steady stats and doesn't hurt your ERA or WHIP too badly? Yes.
Convinced? No? Then pick Get Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, John Lackey and Scott Kazmir in the first five rounds and nickel and dime your offense. And join my league where I will be happy to take your money.

When it comes to building a fantasy pitching staff, there are so many ways to go about selecting your pieces. However, there are many owners (like The Jon) who love going for the cream of the crop only pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of hitters, and post great WHIPs and ERAs.
It’s a great strategy. But there is one problem: Great pitching is at a premium.
The fact off the matter is that your work on draft day (and throughout the season) really begins when those top guys are off the board.
You have to know when to avoid the “name game” — selecting a pitcher way too early based on their name value — and when to look for “hidden gems” or solid arms.
I can’t reiterate this enough: The point of the game is victory, not annihilation. You do not need to win EVERY category (assuming you’re in a head-to-head league) to be successful.
There are plenty of quality pitchers who can be had later in the draft, or be found on the waiver wire, if you know what to look for.
And what might that be, you ask? WHIP.
If by chance you are a stranger to the “WHIP” term, it’s basically the average number of walks and hits that a pitcher gives up per inning. Anything less than 1.30 is usually pretty good.
WHIP is not going to be a key to victory. It is just one stat.
But I am a firm believer WHIP will lead you to a pitcher who will not kill you. This is extremely important for owners who have decided to build their team around offense.
WHIP is so important because it judges how many runners a pitcher allows on base. If a pitcher gives up a solo homerun here and there it’s not going to kill you. But if the same pitcher gives a homerun after allowing a guy to single and then walk, suddenly he’s given up three earned runs on one swing of the bat.
This statistic is the first step to determining if a player is worthy of a roster position. It’s simple: If a guy can’t reach base (see), he can’t score (fight).
When you buy into this theory, you suddenly see realize guys such as Derek Lowe, Chris Capuano, Jose Contreras and Dan Haren can combine to make a competitive rotation. Notice none of those guys (except Haren in some leagues – see PoiDog) will likely be kept or selected in the first 10 rounds of any draft.
In addition, because the WHIP by definition is the average number of baserunners allowed per inning, the stat can help you determine if a particular pitcher is prone to troublesome innings. This is extremely helpful during the season while you’re scouring your league’s waiver wire, especially when dealing with young pitchers.
But while I find this stat to be a pretty good measurement of a pitcher’s success, it is by no means the end-all, be-all of statistics. In addition to WHIP, I like to look at ERA and innings pitched.

Great pitchers do three things: strike batters out, prevent them from getting on base and don’t allow them to hit homers.
It would make sense then that we would evaluate pitchers on this basis.
So, for the sake of your fantasy draft, give these three stats serious consideration: K/BB ratio, HRs allowed and opponents’ on-base percentage.
While your league most certainly does not expressly reward these categories, I can assure you it does implicitly.
The reason: Controlling the strike zone, keeping the ball in the park and leaving the bases empty are the most effective ways of limiting an opponent’s ability to score, which obviously translates into a multitude of other stats.
There’s no way around the fact that the pitchers with the lowest ERAs and Whips and having the highest strikeout totals are going to be baseball’s elite. Atop all three you find Johan Santana. Sprinkled amongst the leaders are names such as Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter.
But you don’t need to know that to realize those are all pitchers worthy of high picks.
By looking outside this realm, though, you can find some hidden gems. Primarily using K/BB, HRs allowed and Opp. OBP, helped lead me to such names as Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman and Scott Kazmir before each had breakout campaigns in 2006.
Using those same metric would point toward guys such as C.C. Sabathia, John Lackey and Erik Bedard as solid mid-round gambles this year.
The trick to using these stats is to not use them as your only evaluation components, but to use them along with other stats to figure out which pitchers are most likely to continue past success.
Look for stats that just don’t match up, like a low ERA with a high number of HRs allowed, unusually high OBP or low K/BB ratio. For the most part, pitchers must do two of those three things well to maintain their success. When they don’t draw a big red X through their name.
What constitutes “good” stats in those areas? Allowing fewer than 20 HRs in a full season, limiting opponents to an OBP under .300 and striking out more than three times as many they walked puts pitchers among the elite in those categories. Warning flags should go up anytime a pitcher has allowed more than 25 HRs, posts an OBP against above .330 and can’t strike out close to twice as many as he walks.
In other words, beware Barry Zito.

If you’ve been reading our forums from the jump, you know three out of four of us heavily stress pitching. While we have been pumping up its importance, but we haven’t yet told you how to go about evaluating it. The wait is over. How to look at pitchers is the topic of this week so break out the notepads.
Know this from the get go, pitchers only have control of certain things. Because this is so, you have to focus on era & strikeouts as the primary categories in your draft. Both of these stats are purely based on the talent of the pitcher you are getting. A pitcher can luck his way into a bunch of wins, Jason Marquis, but he can’t luck into a sub-3 era and 200k’s for a season. These two categories are the most consistent and easiest to predict. If you look at any fantasy magazine with a 3 year history, you have a good predictor of what will happen. The same handful of guys, assuming good health, get those numbers year in and year out. There are too many variables to have to rely on the other eight players surrounding your pitcher. You won’t miss if you take a Santana, Halladay, Oswalt type pitcher early regardless of the Twins, Jays, and ‘Stros.
On the other hand, you can see a guy’s wins and losses go up and down depending on his supporting cast. Looking at the offense, defense, & ballpark of a hurler are part of the equation too, but they should be secondary to a guy’s talent. If the player has all the above, so much the better. Roger Clemens is a great example. He posts and era in the low 2’s and gets at least 7 punch outs every outing. Sadly enough, he played for Houston who, like Newspaperman can’t score. The Rocket’s record was around .500 but this is not a true indicator of what he is. Bottom line, don’t look at the win loss record.
Health is major with pitchers as well. It is harder for them to play hurt than it is for hitters. In the early rounds, let Prior & Pedro be somebody else’s mistake until they prove to you that they can stay healthy.

The Thursday Hypness: Alex Rios: exposing a players true value every Thursday

It's easy to overthink on a player such as Alex Rios. First is his name Alex or Alexis? Was it a staph infection or gangrene that he had with his leg? Where had that ball been that caused all this trouble in the first place? Why are Toronto balls dirtier than U.S. balls? If I were lucky enough to play Major League Baseball, I would demand to have all balls thoroughly inspected. Someone named Alexis looking at these balls and ensuring that they were on the up and up would suffice.
As for Rios, he is a two-dimensional player. If the name was Alexis, we would be talking about three dimensions ... of course.
Those two-dimensions have nothing to do with stats, but value. If you have no friends and consider playing fantasy baseball with coworkers a worthwhile endeavor, then Rios won't even be picked. He's yours, enjoy.
If you stay up at night thinking fantasy baseball, play in a keeper league and — in Newspaperman's case — draw a heart around Roger Clemens entry in a fantasy magazine while writing "Mrs. Newspaperman Clemens," than you know about Rios.
You know he was highly touted in 2004. You know a fantasy manager in the know picked him in the last three rounds in 2005, only to be disappointed with Rios' 10 homeruns and .262 average.
In 2006, Rios was again selected in the later rounds and this time he produced before his leg accident which last time I heard was amputated, used as a trophy for two months in the Toronto clubhouse for being the most overhyped team in baseball for three years and then sewn on back to Rios' leg.
Rios was on his way to being kind of a big deal. He had 92 hits before he got hurt along with 6, 4 and 5 homers in April, May and June. In those same months, he had 19, 19 and 16 RBI. Average: .362, .360 and .264.
When he came back from a hunting accident, where he actually shot his leg off, he supposedly struggled. See, writers like players to come in little packages. When a player gets hurt, he has to struggle. It is a law. When Albert Pujols got hurt last year, writers were complaining that he struck out too much. We are idiots this way. It makes us feel special.
Screw that. Rios had 19 hits, a homer and 11 RBI in August. He had 22 hits, a homer and 15 RBI in August. Did I play him? Are you kidding? My team was stacked. But what he lacked in power he was still better than half the players out there in baseball or on the same level.
The biggest concern with Rios heading into 2006 was his power. He squashed that before he donated his leg to science and then got a new one from a cadaver of a 60-year-old woman. You try to hit a homer with that. If you are in a keeper league and have bad keepers or are trying to get young after your vets have made you the most successful manager for the past five years, than Rios is a pick in the first three rounds.
The first three rounds.
As your third outfielder, Rios will take care of you by providing hits and RBI. Throw in his streaky power, and you will be fine. It is really that easy. I don't care where he hits or that he got SARS. All I know is that he can play on your team from week to week and give you stats.
He is an across the board player or as other fantasy writers like to write, a five-tool-player. I heard it took five tools to remove the second heart Rios had in that leg.

He’s got speed. He’s got pop. He can hit to all fields.
He’s young and he bats near the top of a potent lineup.
He’s got a bright future.
Sound familiar?
That’s Alexis Rios … as well as about a dozen other young players in professional baseball.
Rios has talent, we know that. But at this point, he’s become a cliché. And I fear that his draft value has been jacked up because of his tools (see above), his solid start to 2006, and the “what if …” factor.
I like Rios. I heard about this guy in 2002 and have kept tabs on him ever sense. So when he won a starting job 2006 and got off to a hot start, I snatched him up in two of my leagues. (At one point I even considered him keeper material.)
For three months, I felt like a smart guy. He hit .330, slugged 15 homers, drove in 53 runs, scored 47 himself and stole nine bases … before the all-star break. He was a top-25 player and a fantasy stud.
But then he fouled a ball off his leg, got a weird staph infection and the rest of the season was shot.
Heading into the 2007 draft season, and the six months of baseball bliss that follow, Rios is a huge wildcard on draft boards. Many owners remember his performance and are willing to spend a high draft pick on him, while others have simply forgotten about him. Don’t be that guy.
In my mind, I think he’s a solid fantasy player _ the term stud is overused a lot, even by me _ but I do not expect him to repeat what he did during the first three months of the season.
Rios has the tools to be a star in the league, but he is not a .330 hitter. Nor is he a slugger. And he’s not going to be a potent base stealer as long as he is in Toronto. He’s a good all-around player whose got potential. He reminds me of Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay, but in a better lineup.
The Blue Jays ability to resign Vernon Wells and pickup a designated hitter like Frank Thomas will go a long way to help Rios reach his potential.
Toronto figures to hit him second, in front of a very powerful 3-4-5 consisting of Wells, Thomas and Troy Glaus. With those guys behind him, Rios figures to see his share of hittable pitches, meaning he could push .300 this year. I also think he’ll top the 90-run mark.
But those boppers will likely keep Rios’ homerun total down because his job is to be a table setter. It’ll also mean he’ll see more red lights on the base paths than he would like. That means that fantasy owners should temper their expectations.
If Rios can stay healthy — last season’s injury was completely freakish —I can see him tallying 90 runs, 160 hits, 15 homers, 70 RBIs and 15-20 stolen bases, with an average around .290-.300.
But I do think that if you want him, especially in keeper leagues, you’ll likely have to take him toward the top of your draft because everyone wants to get in on the ground floor.
The Jon “discovered” Roy Halladay.
PoiDog unearthed Johan Santana.
And every year Free San Jose ends up with guys like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Felix Hernandez.
Me, I like my young players too. Hell, all five of my keepers are younger than I am.
But even so, I can’t see myself selecting Rios before tenth or 11th round in a standard league. And in keeper formats, I wouldn’t go for him any earlier than the fifth round.
Rios could be a star (he’ll likely be better in three years), but he plays at a deep position and is one of many young players who possess similar tools. Andre Ethier anyone?

On June 27, Alex Rios collected three hits and two RBI. His batting average sat at a robust .330 and his OPS was .965; Rios was having the breakout year many had expected of him ever since he was a first-round pick in 1999.
But Rios left that game after fouling a ball off his shin. That eventually turned into a nasty staph infection, which cost him about a month on the disabled list.
When he returned, he simply was not the same: Rios (almost literally) limped through the next month or so of the season barely able to get the ball out of the infield. By Aug. 29, his average was down to .290 and his OPS was .834. He had collected just 13 RBI and hit only one homer.
Although he would eventually rebound – he hit .396 and collected 14 RBI over his final 12 games – he never regained the power stroke that propelled him into fantasy stardom, as Rios hit just two homers after his injury.
All of this begs the obvious question: How much do I gamble on Rios? Not much.
As well as Rios played for the first half of the season, that’s all it really was – one half of a season. In fact, it’s not hard to imagine that Rios’ staph infection as merely a convenient “turning point” on which writers like me can focus; that his decline was inevitable.
You see, the Alex Rios who suited up for the Toronto Blue Jays on June 27 was someone who only existed in the craziest Blue Jays fans’ dreams. For all intent and purpose, prior to 2006, Rios was just another first-round bust who the team was just happy to have earning any playing time with the big club.
Rios had one nice season in the minors – a .352, .923 campaign at Double-A New Haven in 2003. But even then, he showed little power, going deep a career high 11 times. He wasn’t particularly good on the bases (22 SBs in 2001 is a career best) and showed little plate discipline (he strikes out nearly three times as much as he walks).
Rios was, at best, a fourth or fifth outfielder.
And that’s what I’d expect of him this year. Is he worth drafting? Sure. Can you count on him to be a starting fantasy outfielder? No way.
Until proven otherwise, Alex Rios is a one-half wonder. Let somebody else take the gamble.

The term sleeper is very commonly thrown around come draft time. You think you are going to catch your boys slipping on this guy and pull him late in a draft. Alex Rios in not a sleeper. If the people you are drafting with know anything, you won’t be able to sit back and wait on Rios this year.
The qualifier “if people know anything” is critical here. Those that follow closely had Rios on their radar three years ago when he was just a name and a prospect. Two year ago, he made the bigs but was only good for speed. Last year, dude blew up.
I saw it coming. He has a smooth stroke and hits to all fields. Initially, he looked like he might be all average with no pop. However, at about 6’4” it was only a matter of time until the power came and last year, it happened. He also hits in front of Vernon Wells.
There things a couple of things keeping this guy's profile low. He plays in Canadia, eh. Maybe you live somewhere like I do. You know, somewhere that people claim to be baseball fans, but only know the people on their home team. These are the kinds of people who wet their pants over the free agent signing of Rich Aurilia and Ryan Klesko. If these are the people in your neighborhood, Rios may last a while. Also, he missed a lot of time last year with a staph infection. Had he played out the full season, he was on pace to go 30/30 and hit over .330. Don’t let the infection deter you. It’s not like a pulled hammy which is likely to reoccur.
I'll sum Alex Rios up using the Hubie Brown methodology of description. In Rios, what have here, is guy who in only 450 at bats, hit over .300 and prior to injury, was on pace to exceed 30 home runs, 30 steals, and 100 RBI and at age 26 is just about to enter his prime. HAAWWAAAWWAAWWWAAAAAA. You should be able to nab Rios in the 5th to 7th rounds, but anything after that is pushing it. Just hope the Don in your league hasn’t read this entry.